Adapting Cropping Patterns to Climate Change: Risk Management Effectiveness of Diversification and Irrigation in Brandenburg (Germany)

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F86652079%3A_____%2F23%3A00576664" target="_blank" >RIV/86652079:_____/23:00576664 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/13/9/1740" target="_blank" >https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/13/9/1740</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/agriculture13091740" target="_blank" >10.3390/agriculture13091740</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Adapting Cropping Patterns to Climate Change: Risk Management Effectiveness of Diversification and Irrigation in Brandenburg (Germany)

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Climate-induced production risk is expected to increase in the future. This study assesses the effectiveness of adapting crop rotations on arable farms in Brandenburg as a tool to enhance climate resilience. Two risk-minimizing measures are investigated: crop diversification and the inclusion of irrigated crops. Based on state-wide simulated yield data, the study compares two different scenarios. In the first scenario, the most profitable crop rotations based on predicted future weather conditions are chosen for each agro-ecological zone. In the second scenario, cropping plans are derived based on an adaption of the Target MOTAD (Minimization of Total Absolute Deviation) model taking climate-induced risks into account. A comparison of the scenarios shows a high risk reduction effect of diversification, while the economic risk reduction effect of irrigation only increases slightly. The trade-off between the highest possible gross margins and lower possible losses varies depending on the soil and climate conditions. Diversification contributed most to economic resilience in areas with moderate to low agricultural productivity. Subsidies focusing on diversification in less productive areas might be a tool to increase economic resilience with low risk-avoidance costs.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Adapting Cropping Patterns to Climate Change: Risk Management Effectiveness of Diversification and Irrigation in Brandenburg (Germany)

Popis výsledku anglicky

Climate-induced production risk is expected to increase in the future. This study assesses the effectiveness of adapting crop rotations on arable farms in Brandenburg as a tool to enhance climate resilience. Two risk-minimizing measures are investigated: crop diversification and the inclusion of irrigated crops. Based on state-wide simulated yield data, the study compares two different scenarios. In the first scenario, the most profitable crop rotations based on predicted future weather conditions are chosen for each agro-ecological zone. In the second scenario, cropping plans are derived based on an adaption of the Target MOTAD (Minimization of Total Absolute Deviation) model taking climate-induced risks into account. A comparison of the scenarios shows a high risk reduction effect of diversification, while the economic risk reduction effect of irrigation only increases slightly. The trade-off between the highest possible gross margins and lower possible losses varies depending on the soil and climate conditions. Diversification contributed most to economic resilience in areas with moderate to low agricultural productivity. Subsidies focusing on diversification in less productive areas might be a tool to increase economic resilience with low risk-avoidance costs.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

40101 - Agriculture

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/EF16_019%2F0000797" target="_blank" >EF16_019/0000797: SustES - Adaptační strategie pro udržitelnost ekosystémových služeb a potravinové bezpečnosti v nepříznivých přírodních podmínkách</a><br>

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2023

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Agriculture-Basel

ISSN

2077-0472

e-ISSN

2077-0472

Svazek periodika

13

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

9

Stát vydavatele periodika

CH - Švýcarská konfederace

Počet stran výsledku

17

Strana od-do

1740

Kód UT WoS článku

001075893300001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85172137776