Increasing volatility of reconstructed Morava River warm-season flow, Czech Republic

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F86652079%3A_____%2F23%3A00578927" target="_blank" >RIV/86652079:_____/23:00578927 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/60460709:41330/23:97226 RIV/00216224:14310/23:00133082 RIV/62156489:43210/23:43924025 RIV/62156489:43410/23:43924025 a 2 dalších

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581823002215?via%3Dihub" target="_blank" >https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581823002215?via%3Dihub</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101534" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101534</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Increasing volatility of reconstructed Morava River warm-season flow, Czech Republic

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Study region: The Morava River basin, Czech Republic, Danube Basin, Central Europe.Study focus: Hydrological summer extremes represent a prominent natural hazard in Central Europe. River low flows constrain transport and water supply for agriculture, industry and society, and flood events are known to cause material damage and human loss. However, under-standing changes in the frequency and magnitude of hydrological extremes is associated with great uncertainty due to the limited number of gauge observations. Here, we compile a tree-ring network to reconstruct the July-September baseflow variability of the Morava River from 1745 to 2018 CE. An ensemble of reconstructions was produced to assess the impact of calibration period length and trend on the long-term mean of reconstruction estimates. The final estimates represent the first baseflow reconstruction based on tree rings from the European continent. Simulated flows and historical documentation provide quantitative and qualitative validation of estimates prior to the 20th century. New hydrological insights for theregion: The reconstructions indicate an increased variability of warm-season flow during the past 100 years, with the most extreme high and low flows occurring after the start of instrumental observations. When analyzing the entire reconstruction, the negative trend in baseflow displayed by gauges across the basin after 1960 is not unprecedented. We conjecture that even lower flows could likely occur in the future considering that preinstrumental trends were not primarily driven by rising temperature (and the evaporative demand) in contrast to the recent trends.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Increasing volatility of reconstructed Morava River warm-season flow, Czech Republic

Popis výsledku anglicky

Study region: The Morava River basin, Czech Republic, Danube Basin, Central Europe.Study focus: Hydrological summer extremes represent a prominent natural hazard in Central Europe. River low flows constrain transport and water supply for agriculture, industry and society, and flood events are known to cause material damage and human loss. However, under-standing changes in the frequency and magnitude of hydrological extremes is associated with great uncertainty due to the limited number of gauge observations. Here, we compile a tree-ring network to reconstruct the July-September baseflow variability of the Morava River from 1745 to 2018 CE. An ensemble of reconstructions was produced to assess the impact of calibration period length and trend on the long-term mean of reconstruction estimates. The final estimates represent the first baseflow reconstruction based on tree rings from the European continent. Simulated flows and historical documentation provide quantitative and qualitative validation of estimates prior to the 20th century. New hydrological insights for theregion: The reconstructions indicate an increased variability of warm-season flow during the past 100 years, with the most extreme high and low flows occurring after the start of instrumental observations. When analyzing the entire reconstruction, the negative trend in baseflow displayed by gauges across the basin after 1960 is not unprecedented. We conjecture that even lower flows could likely occur in the future considering that preinstrumental trends were not primarily driven by rising temperature (and the evaporative demand) in contrast to the recent trends.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10501 - Hydrology

Projekt

Výsledek vznikl pri realizaci vícero projektů. Více informací v záložce Projekty.

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2023

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies

ISSN

2214-5818

e-ISSN

2214-5818

Svazek periodika

50

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

DEC

Stát vydavatele periodika

NL - Nizozemsko

Počet stran výsledku

16

Strana od-do

101534

Kód UT WoS článku

001088759200001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85172005775