Climatic signatures in early modern European grain harvest yields

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F86652079%3A_____%2F23%3A00584020" target="_blank" >RIV/86652079:_____/23:00584020 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/19/2463/2023/" target="_blank" >https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/19/2463/2023/</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2463-2023" target="_blank" >10.5194/cp-19-2463-2023</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Climatic signatures in early modern European grain harvest yields

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The association between climate variability and grain harvest yields has been an important component of food security and economy in European history. Yet, inter-regional comparisons of climate-yield relationships have been hampered by locally varying data types and the use of different statistical methods. Using a coherent statistical framework, considering the effects of diverse serial correlations on statistical significance, we assess the temperature and hydroclimate (precipitation and drought) signatures in grain harvest yields across varying environmental settings of early modern (ca. 1500-1800) Europe. An unprecedentedly large network of yield records from northern (Sweden), central (Switzerland), and southern (Spain) Europe are compared with a diverse set of seasonally and annually resolved palaeoclimate reconstructions. Considering the effects of different crop types and time series frequencies, we find within regions consistent climate-harvest yield associations characterized by a significant summer soil moisture signal in Sweden, winter temperature and precipitation signals in Switzerland, and spring and annual mean temperature signals in Spain. The regional-scale climate-harvest associations are weaker than the recently revealed climate signals in early modern grain prices but similar in strength to modern climate-harvest relationships at comparable spatial scales. This is a noteworthy finding considering the uncertainties inherent in both historical harvest and palaeoclimate data.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Climatic signatures in early modern European grain harvest yields

Popis výsledku anglicky

The association between climate variability and grain harvest yields has been an important component of food security and economy in European history. Yet, inter-regional comparisons of climate-yield relationships have been hampered by locally varying data types and the use of different statistical methods. Using a coherent statistical framework, considering the effects of diverse serial correlations on statistical significance, we assess the temperature and hydroclimate (precipitation and drought) signatures in grain harvest yields across varying environmental settings of early modern (ca. 1500-1800) Europe. An unprecedentedly large network of yield records from northern (Sweden), central (Switzerland), and southern (Spain) Europe are compared with a diverse set of seasonally and annually resolved palaeoclimate reconstructions. Considering the effects of different crop types and time series frequencies, we find within regions consistent climate-harvest yield associations characterized by a significant summer soil moisture signal in Sweden, winter temperature and precipitation signals in Switzerland, and spring and annual mean temperature signals in Spain. The regional-scale climate-harvest associations are weaker than the recently revealed climate signals in early modern grain prices but similar in strength to modern climate-harvest relationships at comparable spatial scales. This is a noteworthy finding considering the uncertainties inherent in both historical harvest and palaeoclimate data.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10509 - Meteorology and atmospheric sciences

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/EF16_019%2F0000797" target="_blank" >EF16_019/0000797: SustES - Adaptační strategie pro udržitelnost ekosystémových služeb a potravinové bezpečnosti v nepříznivých přírodních podmínkách</a><br>

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2023

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Climate of the Past

ISSN

1814-9324

e-ISSN

1814-9332

Svazek periodika

19

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

12

Stát vydavatele periodika

DE - Spolková republika Německo

Počet stran výsledku

29

Strana od-do

2463-2491

Kód UT WoS článku

001168789000001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85180553901