Drought risk in Moldova under global warming and possible crop adaptation strategies

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F86652079%3A_____%2F24%3A00598044" target="_blank" >RIV/86652079:_____/24:00598044 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/60460709:41210/24:98718

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://nyaspubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/nyas.15201" target="_blank" >https://nyaspubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/nyas.15201</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/nyas.15201" target="_blank" >10.1111/nyas.15201</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Drought risk in Moldova under global warming and possible crop adaptation strategies

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

This study analyzes the relationship between drought processes and crop yields in Moldova, together with the effects of possible future climate change on crops. The severity of drought is analyzed over time in Moldova using the Standard Precipitation Index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, and their relationship with crop yields. In addition, rainfall variability and its relationship with crop yields are examined using spectral analysis and squared wavelet coherence. Observed station data (1950-2020 and 1850-2020), ERA5 reanalysis data (1950-2020), and climate model simulations (period 1970-2100) are used. Crop yield data (maize, sunflower, grape), data from experimental plots (wheat), and the Enhanced Vegetation Index from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellites were also used. Results show that although the severity of meteorological droughts has decreased in the last 170 years, the impact of precipitation deficits on different crop yields has increased, concurrent with a sharp increase in temperature, which negatively affected crop yields. Annual crops are now more vulnerable to natural rainfall variability and, in years characterized by rainfall deficits, the possibility of reductions in crop yield increases due to sharp increases in temperature. Projections reveal a pessimistic outlook in the absence of adaptation, highlighting the urgency of developing new agricultural management strategies.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Drought risk in Moldova under global warming and possible crop adaptation strategies

Popis výsledku anglicky

This study analyzes the relationship between drought processes and crop yields in Moldova, together with the effects of possible future climate change on crops. The severity of drought is analyzed over time in Moldova using the Standard Precipitation Index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, and their relationship with crop yields. In addition, rainfall variability and its relationship with crop yields are examined using spectral analysis and squared wavelet coherence. Observed station data (1950-2020 and 1850-2020), ERA5 reanalysis data (1950-2020), and climate model simulations (period 1970-2100) are used. Crop yield data (maize, sunflower, grape), data from experimental plots (wheat), and the Enhanced Vegetation Index from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellites were also used. Results show that although the severity of meteorological droughts has decreased in the last 170 years, the impact of precipitation deficits on different crop yields has increased, concurrent with a sharp increase in temperature, which negatively affected crop yields. Annual crops are now more vulnerable to natural rainfall variability and, in years characterized by rainfall deficits, the possibility of reductions in crop yield increases due to sharp increases in temperature. Projections reveal a pessimistic outlook in the absence of adaptation, highlighting the urgency of developing new agricultural management strategies.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10509 - Meteorology and atmospheric sciences

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/EF16_019%2F0000797" target="_blank" >EF16_019/0000797: SustES - Adaptační strategie pro udržitelnost ekosystémových služeb a potravinové bezpečnosti v nepříznivých přírodních podmínkách</a><br>

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2024

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

New York Academy of Sciences. Annals

ISSN

0077-8923

e-ISSN

1749-6632

Svazek periodika

1538

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

1

Stát vydavatele periodika

US - Spojené státy americké

Počet stran výsledku

18

Strana od-do

144-161

Kód UT WoS článku

001281290300001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85200038647