A 561-yr (1461-2022 CE) summer temperature reconstruction for Mid-Atlantic-Northeast USA shows connections to volcanic forcing and atmospheric circulation

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F86652079%3A_____%2F24%3A00598464" target="_blank" >RIV/86652079:_____/24:00598464 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-024-03798-z" target="_blank" >https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-024-03798-z</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03798-z" target="_blank" >10.1007/s10584-024-03798-z</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

A 561-yr (1461-2022 CE) summer temperature reconstruction for Mid-Atlantic-Northeast USA shows connections to volcanic forcing and atmospheric circulation

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Contextualizing current increases in Northern Hemisphere temperatures is precluded by the short instrumental record of the past ca. 120 years and the dearth of temperature-sensitive proxy records, particularly at lower latitudes south of <50 degrees N. We develop a network of 29 blue intensity chronologies derived from tree rings of Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carri & egravere and Picea rubens Sarg. trees distributed across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast USA (MANE)-a region underrepresented by multi-centennial temperature records. We use this network to reconstruct mean March-September air temperatures back to 1461 CE based on a model that explains 62% of the instrumental temperature variance from 1901-1976 CE. Since 1998 CE, MANE summer temperatures are consistently the warmest within the context of the past 561 years exceeding the 1951-1980 mean of +1.3 degrees C. Cool summers across MANE were frequently volcanically forced, with significant (p<0.05) temperature departures associated with 80% of the largest tropical (n=13) and extratropical (n=15) eruptions since 1461 CE. Yet, we find that more of the identified cool events in the record were likely unforced by volcanism and either related to stochastic variability or atmospheric circulation via significant associations (p<0.05) to regional, coastal sea-surface temperatures, 500-hpa geopotential height, and 300-hpa meridional and zonal wind vectors. Expanding the MANE network to the west and south and combining it with existing temperature-sensitive proxies across North America is an important next step toward producing a gridded temperature reconstruction field for North America.

Název v anglickém jazyce

A 561-yr (1461-2022 CE) summer temperature reconstruction for Mid-Atlantic-Northeast USA shows connections to volcanic forcing and atmospheric circulation

Popis výsledku anglicky

Contextualizing current increases in Northern Hemisphere temperatures is precluded by the short instrumental record of the past ca. 120 years and the dearth of temperature-sensitive proxy records, particularly at lower latitudes south of <50 degrees N. We develop a network of 29 blue intensity chronologies derived from tree rings of Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carri & egravere and Picea rubens Sarg. trees distributed across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast USA (MANE)-a region underrepresented by multi-centennial temperature records. We use this network to reconstruct mean March-September air temperatures back to 1461 CE based on a model that explains 62% of the instrumental temperature variance from 1901-1976 CE. Since 1998 CE, MANE summer temperatures are consistently the warmest within the context of the past 561 years exceeding the 1951-1980 mean of +1.3 degrees C. Cool summers across MANE were frequently volcanically forced, with significant (p<0.05) temperature departures associated with 80% of the largest tropical (n=13) and extratropical (n=15) eruptions since 1461 CE. Yet, we find that more of the identified cool events in the record were likely unforced by volcanism and either related to stochastic variability or atmospheric circulation via significant associations (p<0.05) to regional, coastal sea-surface temperatures, 500-hpa geopotential height, and 300-hpa meridional and zonal wind vectors. Expanding the MANE network to the west and south and combining it with existing temperature-sensitive proxies across North America is an important next step toward producing a gridded temperature reconstruction field for North America.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10511 - Environmental sciences (social aspects to be 5.7)

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2024

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Climatic Change

ISSN

0165-0009

e-ISSN

1573-1480

Svazek periodika

177

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

9

Stát vydavatele periodika

DE - Spolková republika Německo

Počet stran výsledku

23

Strana od-do

144

Kód UT WoS článku

001307862700001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85203250294