Adjusting the significance of daily climate responses in tree-ring proxies

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F86652079%3A_____%2F24%3A00601663" target="_blank" >RIV/86652079:_____/24:00601663 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11676-024-01799-3" target="_blank" >https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11676-024-01799-3</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11676-024-01799-3" target="_blank" >10.1007/s11676-024-01799-3</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Adjusting the significance of daily climate responses in tree-ring proxies

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Correlating tree-ring parameters with daily resolved climate data is becoming increasingly common for understanding the complex relationships between tree growth and the surrounding environment. However, with an increased number of calculated correlations, there is an inherent risk of spurious significance. In this study, we present an analysis using synthetic weather and tree-ring data mimicking the statistical properties of ten real-world sites across Europe to quantify the extent to which numerous comparisons may inflate maximum correlations. Comparisons of different tree-ring proxies, considering varying overlapping period lengths and seasons, revealed 95th percentile correlation differences reaching 0.25 by chance. Using synthetic tree-ring chronologies with an assigned non-signal (r = 0.00), spurious correlations can reach statistical significance in over 60% of tests. Correlation inflation is greater when: (1) the climate-proxy relationship is weaker, (2) comparison periods are shorter, and (3) the length of seasonal windows is longer. Autocorrelation in the proxy records does not appear to have a major effect. These findings indicate that caution should be exercised when computing high numbers of correlations with limited observations. We provide tables listing correlation inflations for precipitation- and temperature-sensitive tree-ring chronologies that can inform interpretations of significance.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Adjusting the significance of daily climate responses in tree-ring proxies

Popis výsledku anglicky

Correlating tree-ring parameters with daily resolved climate data is becoming increasingly common for understanding the complex relationships between tree growth and the surrounding environment. However, with an increased number of calculated correlations, there is an inherent risk of spurious significance. In this study, we present an analysis using synthetic weather and tree-ring data mimicking the statistical properties of ten real-world sites across Europe to quantify the extent to which numerous comparisons may inflate maximum correlations. Comparisons of different tree-ring proxies, considering varying overlapping period lengths and seasons, revealed 95th percentile correlation differences reaching 0.25 by chance. Using synthetic tree-ring chronologies with an assigned non-signal (r = 0.00), spurious correlations can reach statistical significance in over 60% of tests. Correlation inflation is greater when: (1) the climate-proxy relationship is weaker, (2) comparison periods are shorter, and (3) the length of seasonal windows is longer. Autocorrelation in the proxy records does not appear to have a major effect. These findings indicate that caution should be exercised when computing high numbers of correlations with limited observations. We provide tables listing correlation inflations for precipitation- and temperature-sensitive tree-ring chronologies that can inform interpretations of significance.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

40102 - Forestry

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/EH22_008%2F0004635" target="_blank" >EH22_008/0004635: AdAgriF - Pokročilé metody redukce emisí a sekvestrace skleníkových plynů v zemědělské a lesní krajině pro mitigaci změny klimatu</a><br>

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2024

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Journal of Forestry Research

ISSN

1007-662X

e-ISSN

1993-0607

Svazek periodika

36

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

1

Stát vydavatele periodika

CN - Čínská lidová republika

Počet stran výsledku

16

Strana od-do

3

Kód UT WoS článku

001354138700002

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85208712309