Contrasting Future Growth of Norway Spruce and Scots Pine Forests Under Warming Climate

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F86652079%3A_____%2F24%3A00602739" target="_blank" >RIV/86652079:_____/24:00602739 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.17580" target="_blank" >https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.17580</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.17580" target="_blank" >10.1111/gcb.17580</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Contrasting Future Growth of Norway Spruce and Scots Pine Forests Under Warming Climate

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Forests are essential to climate change mitigation through carbon sequestration, transpiration, and turnover. However, the quantification of climate change impacts on forest growth is uncertain and even contradictory in some regions, which is the result of spatially constrained studies. Here, we use an unprecedented network of 1.5 million tree growth records from 493 Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris stands across Europe to predict species-specific tree growth variability from 1950 to 2016 (R-2 > 0.82) and develop 21st-century gridded projections considering different climate change scenarios. The approach demonstrates overall positive effects of warming temperatures leading to 25% projected conifer growth increases under the SPP370 scenario, but these additional carbon gains are spatially inhomogeneous and associated with geographic climate gradients. Maximum gains are projected for pines in Scandinavia, where growth trajectories indicate 50% increases by 2071-2100. Smaller but significant growth reductions are projected in Mediterranean Europe, where conifer growth shrinks by 25% in response to warmer temperatures. Our results reveal potential mitigating effects via forest carbon sequestration increases in response to global warming and stress the importance of effective forest management.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Contrasting Future Growth of Norway Spruce and Scots Pine Forests Under Warming Climate

Popis výsledku anglicky

Forests are essential to climate change mitigation through carbon sequestration, transpiration, and turnover. However, the quantification of climate change impacts on forest growth is uncertain and even contradictory in some regions, which is the result of spatially constrained studies. Here, we use an unprecedented network of 1.5 million tree growth records from 493 Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris stands across Europe to predict species-specific tree growth variability from 1950 to 2016 (R-2 > 0.82) and develop 21st-century gridded projections considering different climate change scenarios. The approach demonstrates overall positive effects of warming temperatures leading to 25% projected conifer growth increases under the SPP370 scenario, but these additional carbon gains are spatially inhomogeneous and associated with geographic climate gradients. Maximum gains are projected for pines in Scandinavia, where growth trajectories indicate 50% increases by 2071-2100. Smaller but significant growth reductions are projected in Mediterranean Europe, where conifer growth shrinks by 25% in response to warmer temperatures. Our results reveal potential mitigating effects via forest carbon sequestration increases in response to global warming and stress the importance of effective forest management.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10619 - Biodiversity conservation

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2024

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Global Change Biology

ISSN

1354-1013

e-ISSN

1365-2486

Svazek periodika

30

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

11

Stát vydavatele periodika

US - Spojené státy americké

Počet stran výsledku

13

Strana od-do

e17580

Kód UT WoS článku

001369524600001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85209856508