Past and Future Climate-Driven Changes of Agricultural Land in Central Europe

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F86652079%3A_____%2F24%3A00603394" target="_blank" >RIV/86652079:_____/24:00603394 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/68081758:_____/24:00603394 RIV/00216224:14310/24:00138274 RIV/62156489:43210/24:43926285 RIV/62156489:43410/24:43926285

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024GL112363" target="_blank" >https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024GL112363</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2024GL112363" target="_blank" >10.1029/2024GL112363</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Past and Future Climate-Driven Changes of Agricultural Land in Central Europe

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Europe is expected to experience major climatic shifts during the 21st century but the impact on agricultural productivity from such changes is uncertain. Here, we combine proxy, instrumental, and model data to assess interannual to multi-centennial changes in central European agroclimate over the past 2,000 years and projections into the near future. Whereas early 21st century conditions are rare but not fully unprecedented, more than half of the area that was considered highly productive throughout the Common Era in central Europe currently falls outside of that definition. This trend will likely continue as even the most conservative climate projections push central Europe outside the range of past natural variability of changes to agroclimatic zones. Reconstructed extremes prior to the instrumental record align well with contemporary documentary records of societal upheaval. Forecasted changes to the main agroclimatic drivers require substantial adaptation in land use and agricultural management strategies of considerable costs.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Past and Future Climate-Driven Changes of Agricultural Land in Central Europe

Popis výsledku anglicky

Europe is expected to experience major climatic shifts during the 21st century but the impact on agricultural productivity from such changes is uncertain. Here, we combine proxy, instrumental, and model data to assess interannual to multi-centennial changes in central European agroclimate over the past 2,000 years and projections into the near future. Whereas early 21st century conditions are rare but not fully unprecedented, more than half of the area that was considered highly productive throughout the Common Era in central Europe currently falls outside of that definition. This trend will likely continue as even the most conservative climate projections push central Europe outside the range of past natural variability of changes to agroclimatic zones. Reconstructed extremes prior to the instrumental record align well with contemporary documentary records of societal upheaval. Forecasted changes to the main agroclimatic drivers require substantial adaptation in land use and agricultural management strategies of considerable costs.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10505 - Geology

Projekt

Výsledek vznikl pri realizaci vícero projektů. Více informací v záložce Projekty.

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2024

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Geophysical Research Letters

ISSN

0094-8276

e-ISSN

1944-8007

Svazek periodika

51

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

24

Stát vydavatele periodika

US - Spojené státy americké

Počet stran výsledku

11

Strana od-do

e2024GL112363

Kód UT WoS článku

001381111800001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85212752863