Droughts and conflicts during the late Roman period

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F86652079%3A_____%2F25%3A00619488" target="_blank" >RIV/86652079:_____/25:00619488 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/00216224:14310/25:00141912

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-025-03925-4" target="_blank" >https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-025-03925-4</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-025-03925-4" target="_blank" >10.1007/s10584-025-03925-4</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Droughts and conflicts during the late Roman period

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Despite continuous investigation, reasons for both the abandonment of Roman Britain around 410 CE, and the separate collapse of the Western Roman Empire in 476 CE remain unclear. Here, we use tree ring-based climate reconstructions and written documentary sources to show that a sequence of severe summer droughts from 364 to 366 CE not only contributed to prolonged harvest failures and food shortages, but also played a role in the 'Barbarian Conspiracy', a catastrophic military defeat for Roman Britain in 367 CE. In line with contemporary reports from the historian Ammianus Marcellinus, this pivotal event in pre-modern history coincided with anomalous coin hoarding, and a gradual depopulation of Roman villas and towns. Expanding our climate-conflict analysis from Roman Britain as a case study to the entire Roman Empire and the period 350-476 CE reveals clear linkages between years in which battles occurred and preceding warm and dry summers. Based on these findings, we develop a mechanistic model to explain the vulnerability of agrarian societies to climate variability, whereby prolonged droughts cause harvest failures and food shortages (dependant on societal resilience) that lead to systematic pressure, societal instability, and eventually outright conflict.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Droughts and conflicts during the late Roman period

Popis výsledku anglicky

Despite continuous investigation, reasons for both the abandonment of Roman Britain around 410 CE, and the separate collapse of the Western Roman Empire in 476 CE remain unclear. Here, we use tree ring-based climate reconstructions and written documentary sources to show that a sequence of severe summer droughts from 364 to 366 CE not only contributed to prolonged harvest failures and food shortages, but also played a role in the 'Barbarian Conspiracy', a catastrophic military defeat for Roman Britain in 367 CE. In line with contemporary reports from the historian Ammianus Marcellinus, this pivotal event in pre-modern history coincided with anomalous coin hoarding, and a gradual depopulation of Roman villas and towns. Expanding our climate-conflict analysis from Roman Britain as a case study to the entire Roman Empire and the period 350-476 CE reveals clear linkages between years in which battles occurred and preceding warm and dry summers. Based on these findings, we develop a mechanistic model to explain the vulnerability of agrarian societies to climate variability, whereby prolonged droughts cause harvest failures and food shortages (dependant on societal resilience) that lead to systematic pressure, societal instability, and eventually outright conflict.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10509 - Meteorology and atmospheric sciences

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/GA23-08049S" target="_blank" >GA23-08049S: Středoevropské HYDRoklima na základě stabilních izotopů z dubových letokrůhů za posledních 8000 let – HYDRO8</a><br>

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2025

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Climatic Change

ISSN

0165-0009

e-ISSN

1573-1480

Svazek periodika

178

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

5

Stát vydavatele periodika

DE - Spolková republika Německo

Počet stran výsledku

17

Strana od-do

87

Kód UT WoS článku

001469307300001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-105002756562