Tools for PV (photovoltaic) plant operators: Nowcasting of passing clouds

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F67985807%3A_____%2F13%3A00391554" target="_blank" >RIV/67985807:_____/13:00391554 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2013.03.005" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2013.03.005</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2013.03.005" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.energy.2013.03.005</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Tools for PV (photovoltaic) plant operators: Nowcasting of passing clouds

Original language description

The response time of a PV (photovoltaic) plant is very short and its output power follows the abrupt change in solar irradiance level due to alternate shadow by clouds. The sunshine number (SSN) is a Boolean quantity stating whether the sun is covered byclouds or not, thus being an appropriate parameter to predict the occurrence of direct solar radiation at ground level. Various ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) models for SSN nowcasting are inferred and discussed in this paper. Actinometric and meteorological data measured at 15 s lag during June 2010 in Timisoara (Romania) are used. The forecasting accuracy is studied as a function of season, of the procedure used to obtain a binary time series and of the type of white noise distribution, respectively. It is demonstrated that the ARIMA(0,1,0) model forecasts SSN with the same accuracy as higher order ARIMA models. The forecasting accuracy decreases when the instability of the radiative regime increases.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_x - Unclassified - Peer-reviewed scientific article (Jimp, Jsc and Jost)

CEP classification

JE - Non-nuclear power engineering, energy consumption and utilization

OECD FORD branch

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Project

<a href="/en/project/LD12009" target="_blank" >LD12009: Advanced methods for energy production forecasting by photovoltaic systems using high resolution NWP models</a><br>

Continuities

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year

2013

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Energy

ISSN

0360-5442

e-ISSN

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Volume of the periodical

54

Issue of the periodical within the volume

1

Country of publishing house

GB - UNITED KINGDOM

Number of pages

9

Pages from-to

104-112

UT code for WoS article

000319371600010

EID of the result in the Scopus database

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