Cloud Shade by Dynamic Logistic Modeling

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F67985807%3A_____%2F14%3A00420888" target="_blank" >RIV/67985807:_____/14:00420888 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02664763.2013.862221" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02664763.2013.862221</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02664763.2013.862221" target="_blank" >10.1080/02664763.2013.862221</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Cloud Shade by Dynamic Logistic Modeling

Original language description

During the daytime, the sun is shining or not at ground level depending on clouds motion. Two binary variables may be used to quantify this process: the sunshine number (SSN) and the sunshine stability number (SSSN). The sequential features of SSN are treated in this paper by using Markovian Logistic Regression models, which avoid usual weaknesses of autoregressive integrated moving average modeling. The theory is illustrated with results obtained by using measurements performed in 2010 at Timisoara (southern Europe). Simple modeling taking into account internal dynamics with one lag history brings substantial reduction of misclassification compared with the persistence approach (to less than 57%). When longer history is considered, all the lags up toat least 8 are important. The seasonal changes are rather concentrated to low lags. Better performance is associated with a more stable radiative regime. More involved models add external influences (such as sun elevation angle or astrono

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_x - Unclassified - Peer-reviewed scientific article (Jimp, Jsc and Jost)

CEP classification

BB - Applied statistics, operational research

OECD FORD branch

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Project

<a href="/en/project/LD12009" target="_blank" >LD12009: Advanced methods for energy production forecasting by photovoltaic systems using high resolution NWP models</a><br>

Continuities

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year

2014

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Journal of Applied Statistics

ISSN

0266-4763

e-ISSN

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Volume of the periodical

41

Issue of the periodical within the volume

6

Country of publishing house

GB - UNITED KINGDOM

Number of pages

15

Pages from-to

1174-1188

UT code for WoS article

000334073100002

EID of the result in the Scopus database

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