Forecast verification for multicategory discrete predictands related to the Common Air Quality Index

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00020699%3A_____%2F11%3A%230000436" target="_blank" >RIV/00020699:_____/11:#0000436 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

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DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Forecast verification for multicategory discrete predictands related to the Common Air Quality Index

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

When forecast concentrations of modelled substances are used to calculate an air quality index, such as the Common Air Quality Index (CAQI), the forecast index classes must be validated. Here, we focus on the Peirce Skill Score, the Heidke Skill Score and the Gandian-Murphy Skill Score which allow assessment of how well CAQI classes were forecast by a statistically adapted forecast model. The techniques are applied to 70 air quality forecasts at European cities produced within the CITEAIR II project. The value of the statistical measures, to the verification process, is discussed. A key effect of using the scores is that a loss of information occurs by distilling the data into one value and this can disguise some aspects of forecast skill. The Gandian-Murphy Skill Score was found have the potential to lead to non-intuitive skill conclusions which may be unsuitable for air quality forecast verification.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Forecast verification for multicategory discrete predictands related to the Common Air Quality Index

Popis výsledku anglicky

When forecast concentrations of modelled substances are used to calculate an air quality index, such as the Common Air Quality Index (CAQI), the forecast index classes must be validated. Here, we focus on the Peirce Skill Score, the Heidke Skill Score and the Gandian-Murphy Skill Score which allow assessment of how well CAQI classes were forecast by a statistically adapted forecast model. The techniques are applied to 70 air quality forecasts at European cities produced within the CITEAIR II project. The value of the statistical measures, to the verification process, is discussed. A key effect of using the scores is that a loss of information occurs by distilling the data into one value and this can disguise some aspects of forecast skill. The Gandian-Murphy Skill Score was found have the potential to lead to non-intuitive skill conclusions which may be unsuitable for air quality forecast verification.

Druh

A - Audiovizuální tvorba

CEP obor

DG - Vědy o atmosféře, meteorologie

OECD FORD obor

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Projekt

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Návaznosti

V - Vyzkumna aktivita podporovana z jinych verejnych zdroju

Rok uplatnění

2011

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

ISBN

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Místo vydání

Praha, Česká republika

Název nakladatele resp. objednatele

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Verze

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Identifikační číslo nosiče

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