Statistical post-processing of short-term hydrological ensemble forecasts using the application of the dressing method

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00020699%3A_____%2F21%3AN0000014" target="_blank" >RIV/00020699:_____/21:N0000014 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="http://147.213.100.3/ah_articles/2021_22_2_Vlasak_276.pdf" target="_blank" >http://147.213.100.3/ah_articles/2021_22_2_Vlasak_276.pdf</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.31577/ahs-2021-0022.02.0031" target="_blank" >10.31577/ahs-2021-0022.02.0031</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Statistical post-processing of short-term hydrological ensemble forecasts using the application of the dressing method

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Probabilistic hydrological forecasts used in forecasting offices are often based only on different variants of precipitation forecast, which are the dominant source of forecast uncertainty during flood periods. The proposed method called dressing extends the uncertainty of meteorological forecast input by estimating the uncertainty of hydrological modeling using statistical analysis of deviations derived from simulated and observed flows. Adjustment of probabilistic flow forecasts is applied by post-processing without interfering with the hydrological model itself. The method is focused primarily on runoff phases, where heavy precipitation is not expected and the dispersion of the original ensemble is insufficient. A comparison of the success of short-term operative ensemble predictions of river discharge in the upper Vltava basin before and after adjusting by the dressing method showed a clear improvement in statistics.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Statistical post-processing of short-term hydrological ensemble forecasts using the application of the dressing method

Popis výsledku anglicky

Probabilistic hydrological forecasts used in forecasting offices are often based only on different variants of precipitation forecast, which are the dominant source of forecast uncertainty during flood periods. The proposed method called dressing extends the uncertainty of meteorological forecast input by estimating the uncertainty of hydrological modeling using statistical analysis of deviations derived from simulated and observed flows. Adjustment of probabilistic flow forecasts is applied by post-processing without interfering with the hydrological model itself. The method is focused primarily on runoff phases, where heavy precipitation is not expected and the dispersion of the original ensemble is insufficient. A comparison of the success of short-term operative ensemble predictions of river discharge in the upper Vltava basin before and after adjusting by the dressing method showed a clear improvement in statistics.

Druh

J_SC - Článek v periodiku v databázi SCOPUS

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10501 - Hydrology

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2021

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Acta Hydrologica Slovaca

ISSN

2644-4690

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

22

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

2

Stát vydavatele periodika

SK - Slovenská republika

Počet stran výsledku

8

Strana od-do

276-283

Kód UT WoS článku

—

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85111945058