Megafloods in Europe can be anticipated from observations in hydrologically similar catchments

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00020699%3A_____%2F23%3AN0000144" target="_blank" >RIV/00020699:_____/23:N0000144 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/00216208:11310/23:10473252

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-023-01300-5" target="_blank" >https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-023-01300-5</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01300-5" target="_blank" >10.1038/s41561-023-01300-5</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Megafloods in Europe can be anticipated from observations in hydrologically similar catchments

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Megafloods that far exceed previously observed records often take citizens and experts by surprise, resulting in extremely severe damage and loss of life. Existing methods based on local and regional information rarely go beyond national borders and cannot predict these floods well because of limited data on megafloods, and because flood generation processes of extremes differ from those of smaller, more frequently observed events. Here we analyse river discharge observations from over 8,000 gauging stations across Europe and show that recent megafloods could have been anticipated from those previously observed in other places in Europe. Almost all observed megafloods (95.5%) fall within the envelope values estimated from previous floods in other similar places on the continent, implying that local surprises are not surprising at the continental scale. This holds also for older events, indicating that megafloods have not changed much in time relative to their spatial variability. The underlying concept of the study is that catchments with similar flood generation processes produce similar outliers. It is thus essential to transcend national boundaries and learn from other places across the continent to avoid surprises and save lives.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Megafloods in Europe can be anticipated from observations in hydrologically similar catchments

Popis výsledku anglicky

Megafloods that far exceed previously observed records often take citizens and experts by surprise, resulting in extremely severe damage and loss of life. Existing methods based on local and regional information rarely go beyond national borders and cannot predict these floods well because of limited data on megafloods, and because flood generation processes of extremes differ from those of smaller, more frequently observed events. Here we analyse river discharge observations from over 8,000 gauging stations across Europe and show that recent megafloods could have been anticipated from those previously observed in other places in Europe. Almost all observed megafloods (95.5%) fall within the envelope values estimated from previous floods in other similar places on the continent, implying that local surprises are not surprising at the continental scale. This holds also for older events, indicating that megafloods have not changed much in time relative to their spatial variability. The underlying concept of the study is that catchments with similar flood generation processes produce similar outliers. It is thus essential to transcend national boundaries and learn from other places across the continent to avoid surprises and save lives.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10501 - Hydrology

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2023

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Nature Geoscience

ISSN

1752-0894

e-ISSN

1752-0908

Svazek periodika

16

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

11

Stát vydavatele periodika

GB - Spojené království Velké Británie a Severního Irska

Počet stran výsledku

7

Strana od-do

982-988

Kód UT WoS článku

001099019500003

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85175806334