Shifts in flood generation processes exacerbate regional flood anomalies in Europe

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60460709%3A41330%2F23%3A97265" target="_blank" >RIV/60460709:41330/23:97265 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00714-8" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00714-8</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00714-8" target="_blank" >10.1038/s43247-023-00714-8</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Shifts in flood generation processes exacerbate regional flood anomalies in Europe

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Anomalies in the frequency of river floods, i.e., flood-rich or -poor periods, cause biases in flood risk estimates and thus make climate adaptation measures less efficient. While observations have recently confirmed the presence of flood anomalies in Europe, their exact causes are not clear. Here we analyse streamflow and climate observations during 1960-2010 to show that shifts in flood generation processes contribute more to the occurrence of regional flood anomalies than changes in extreme rainfall. A shift from rain on dry soil to rain on wet soil events by 5% increased the frequency of flood-rich periods in the Atlantic region, and an opposite shift in the Mediterranean region increased the frequency of flood-poor periods, but will likely make singular extreme floods occur more often. Flood anomalies driven by changing flood generation processes in Europe may further intensify in a warming climate and should be considered in flood estimation and management. Changes in the processes that can generate floods, such as rain falling on wet rather than dry soil, affect the occurrence of regional floods more than changes in extreme rainfall, according to an analysis of flood anomalies observed in Europe combined with a flood process typology.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Shifts in flood generation processes exacerbate regional flood anomalies in Europe

Popis výsledku anglicky

Anomalies in the frequency of river floods, i.e., flood-rich or -poor periods, cause biases in flood risk estimates and thus make climate adaptation measures less efficient. While observations have recently confirmed the presence of flood anomalies in Europe, their exact causes are not clear. Here we analyse streamflow and climate observations during 1960-2010 to show that shifts in flood generation processes contribute more to the occurrence of regional flood anomalies than changes in extreme rainfall. A shift from rain on dry soil to rain on wet soil events by 5% increased the frequency of flood-rich periods in the Atlantic region, and an opposite shift in the Mediterranean region increased the frequency of flood-poor periods, but will likely make singular extreme floods occur more often. Flood anomalies driven by changing flood generation processes in Europe may further intensify in a warming climate and should be considered in flood estimation and management. Changes in the processes that can generate floods, such as rain falling on wet rather than dry soil, affect the occurrence of regional floods more than changes in extreme rainfall, according to an analysis of flood anomalies observed in Europe combined with a flood process typology.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10501 - Hydrology

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Rok uplatnění

2023

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Communications Earth & Environment

ISSN

2662-4435

e-ISSN

2662-4435

Svazek periodika

4

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

1

Stát vydavatele periodika

GB - Spojené království Velké Británie a Severního Irska

Počet stran výsledku

12

Strana od-do

1-12

Kód UT WoS článku

000937909600002

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85148874764