Modelling future hydrological pattern in a Bohemian Forest headwater catchment

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00025798%3A_____%2F18%3A00000113" target="_blank" >RIV/00025798:_____/18:00000113 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/00020699:_____/18:N0000011

Výsledek na webu

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DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Modelling future hydrological pattern in a Bohemian Forest headwater catchment

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

This study focuses on estimation of the impacts of anticipated global climate change on water balance in forested headwater catchment. The investigated catchment is located in Bohemian Forest National Park in the southern part of the Czech Republic. We calculated nine future water balance scenarios for periods of 2021–2050 and 2071–2100. We used data from following models: CNRM-CM5_ALADIN53, EC-EARTH_RACMO22E, EC-EARTH_RCA4, MPI-ESM-LR_CCLM4-8-17 with 3 emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways RCP2.6, 4.5, 8.5). Corrected regional climate model daily data were used in combination with hydrological model Brook90. The scenarios projected an increase of mean annual temperature of 1.1°C (RCP4.5) and 1.4°C (RCP8.5, 2021–2050) and 2.3°C (RCP4.5) and 4.2°C (RCP8.5, 2071–2100) and increase in mean annual precipitation amount of 11percent (RCP 4.5) and 15percent (RCP 8.5, 2021–2050) and 15percent (RCP 4.5) and 20percent (RCP8.5, 2071–2100). It would result in mean annual runoff increase of 9percent (RCP4.5) and 14percent (RCP8.5, 2021–2050) and 12percent (RCP4.5) and 16percent (RCP8.5, 2071–2100). The annual runoff cycle is projected to change significantly especially in the period of 2071–2100, when a large winter runoff increase and spring runoff maxima decrease is expected. “Pessimistic” RCP8.5 scenarios expect even no spring runoff maxima from snowmelt and project a shift of runoff maxima to December.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Modelling future hydrological pattern in a Bohemian Forest headwater catchment

Popis výsledku anglicky

This study focuses on estimation of the impacts of anticipated global climate change on water balance in forested headwater catchment. The investigated catchment is located in Bohemian Forest National Park in the southern part of the Czech Republic. We calculated nine future water balance scenarios for periods of 2021–2050 and 2071–2100. We used data from following models: CNRM-CM5_ALADIN53, EC-EARTH_RACMO22E, EC-EARTH_RCA4, MPI-ESM-LR_CCLM4-8-17 with 3 emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways RCP2.6, 4.5, 8.5). Corrected regional climate model daily data were used in combination with hydrological model Brook90. The scenarios projected an increase of mean annual temperature of 1.1°C (RCP4.5) and 1.4°C (RCP8.5, 2021–2050) and 2.3°C (RCP4.5) and 4.2°C (RCP8.5, 2071–2100) and increase in mean annual precipitation amount of 11percent (RCP 4.5) and 15percent (RCP 8.5, 2021–2050) and 15percent (RCP 4.5) and 20percent (RCP8.5, 2071–2100). It would result in mean annual runoff increase of 9percent (RCP4.5) and 14percent (RCP8.5, 2021–2050) and 12percent (RCP4.5) and 16percent (RCP8.5, 2071–2100). The annual runoff cycle is projected to change significantly especially in the period of 2071–2100, when a large winter runoff increase and spring runoff maxima decrease is expected. “Pessimistic” RCP8.5 scenarios expect even no spring runoff maxima from snowmelt and project a shift of runoff maxima to December.

Druh

J_ost - Ostatní články v recenzovaných periodicích

CEP obor

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OECD FORD obor

10501 - Hydrology

Projekt

Výsledek vznikl pri realizaci vícero projektů. Více informací v záložce Projekty.

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2018

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Silva Gabreta

ISSN

1211-7420

e-ISSN

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Svazek periodika

24

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

1

Stát vydavatele periodika

CZ - Česká republika

Počet stran výsledku

21

Strana od-do

47-67

Kód UT WoS článku

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EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

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