Does money help predict inflation? An empirical assessment for Central Europe

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11230%2F11%3A10100427" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11230/11:10100427 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/26138077:_____/11:#0000201

Výsledek na webu

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2011.03.001" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2011.03.001</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2011.03.001" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.ecosys.2011.03.001</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Does money help predict inflation? An empirical assessment for Central Europe

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

This paper investigates the predictive ability of money for future inflation in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. We construct monetary indicators similar to those the European Central Bank regularly uses for monetary analysis. We find in-sample evidence that money matters for future inflation at the policy horizons that central banks typically focus on, but our pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise shows that money does not in general improve the inflation forecasts vis-a-vis some benchmark models such as the autoregressive process. Since at least some models containing money improve the inflation forecasts in certain periods, we argue that money still serves as a useful cross-check for monetary policy analysis.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Does money help predict inflation? An empirical assessment for Central Europe

Popis výsledku anglicky

This paper investigates the predictive ability of money for future inflation in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. We construct monetary indicators similar to those the European Central Bank regularly uses for monetary analysis. We find in-sample evidence that money matters for future inflation at the policy horizons that central banks typically focus on, but our pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise shows that money does not in general improve the inflation forecasts vis-a-vis some benchmark models such as the autoregressive process. Since at least some models containing money improve the inflation forecasts in certain periods, we argue that money still serves as a useful cross-check for monetary policy analysis.

Druh

J_x - Nezařazeno - Článek v odborném periodiku (Jimp, Jsc a Jost)

CEP obor

AH - Ekonomie

OECD FORD obor

—

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/GAP402%2F11%2F1487" target="_blank" >GAP402/11/1487: Měnová politika, finanční stabilita a finanční krize</a><br>

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2011

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Economic Systems

ISSN

0939-3625

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

35

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

4

Stát vydavatele periodika

NL - Nizozemsko

Počet stran výsledku

14

Strana od-do

523-536

Kód UT WoS článku

—

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

—