Inflation Forecasting and Targeting: Experience from Central Europe

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F04274644%3A_____%2F21%3A%230000790" target="_blank" >RIV/04274644:_____/21:#0000790 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/statistika-statistics-and-economy-journal-ptl91ua1gm" target="_blank" >https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/statistika-statistics-and-economy-journal-ptl91ua1gm</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Inflation Forecasting and Targeting: Experience from Central Europe

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

This paper deals with inflation forecasting and targeting performance of selected Central and Eastern-European central banks. Using battery of absolute and scaled forecasting errors along with significance tests, we have evaluated inflation predictions on the optimal monetary policy transmission horizon (14–16 months), as well as adherence to long-term inflation targets. Out of the evaluated Czech, Hungarian and Polish central banks, complemented by the European Central Bank for comparison, it was found, that even though the bank´s performance improved during the last decade, notably with the forecasting component, some issues are still present. These are mostly connected to the inflation targeting mechanism, which was found to contain systemic bias in the case of the Czech national bank, as well as failing in comparison with the naïve benchmark in the case of the European Central Bank. Both outcomes pave the way for further investigation in a wider economical context.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Inflation Forecasting and Targeting: Experience from Central Europe

Popis výsledku anglicky

This paper deals with inflation forecasting and targeting performance of selected Central and Eastern-European central banks. Using battery of absolute and scaled forecasting errors along with significance tests, we have evaluated inflation predictions on the optimal monetary policy transmission horizon (14–16 months), as well as adherence to long-term inflation targets. Out of the evaluated Czech, Hungarian and Polish central banks, complemented by the European Central Bank for comparison, it was found, that even though the bank´s performance improved during the last decade, notably with the forecasting component, some issues are still present. These are mostly connected to the inflation targeting mechanism, which was found to contain systemic bias in the case of the Czech national bank, as well as failing in comparison with the naïve benchmark in the case of the European Central Bank. Both outcomes pave the way for further investigation in a wider economical context.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

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OECD FORD obor

50200 - Economics and Business

Projekt

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Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2021

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Statistika: Statistics and Economy Journal

ISSN

0322-788X

e-ISSN

1804-8765

Svazek periodika

101

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

3

Stát vydavatele periodika

CZ - Česká republika

Počet stran výsledku

9

Strana od-do

259-267

Kód UT WoS článku

000697713500002

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85119440615