Improving national strategic foresight with the use of forecasting tournaments and its implications for the study of international relations
Identifikátory výsledku
Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11230%2F22%3A10437993" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11230/22:10437993 - isvavai.cz</a>
Výsledek na webu
<a href="https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=WNWhrn574T" target="_blank" >https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=WNWhrn574T</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.12688/stomiedintrelat.17424.1" target="_blank" >10.12688/stomiedintrelat.17424.1</a>
Alternativní jazyky
Jazyk výsledku
angličtina
Název v původním jazyce
Improving national strategic foresight with the use of forecasting tournaments and its implications for the study of international relations
Popis výsledku v původním jazyce
Improving national strategic foresight can help the formation of more robust and informed policies, including foreign policy. Predicated upon the theory behind peer-prediction elicitation methods such as Reciprocal Scoring, we combined two foresight methods - Forecasting tournaments and a Delphi method - into a design in which a forecasting tournament predicted the results of a Delphi. Experts in a Delphi could take into account the arguments of participants from a prior forecasting tournament and thus make better-informed decisions. This methodological article aims to validate the feasibility of this design. It describes how we implemented it for identifying and prioritizing global megatrends as part of a strategic foresight project for the Czech government. We found this design practically applicable, while the forecasting tournament also seems to improve the ability of participants to predict a group consensus. Similar combinations of foresight methods could be used to enhance the study of international relations.
Název v anglickém jazyce
Improving national strategic foresight with the use of forecasting tournaments and its implications for the study of international relations
Popis výsledku anglicky
Improving national strategic foresight can help the formation of more robust and informed policies, including foreign policy. Predicated upon the theory behind peer-prediction elicitation methods such as Reciprocal Scoring, we combined two foresight methods - Forecasting tournaments and a Delphi method - into a design in which a forecasting tournament predicted the results of a Delphi. Experts in a Delphi could take into account the arguments of participants from a prior forecasting tournament and thus make better-informed decisions. This methodological article aims to validate the feasibility of this design. It describes how we implemented it for identifying and prioritizing global megatrends as part of a strategic foresight project for the Czech government. We found this design practically applicable, while the forecasting tournament also seems to improve the ability of participants to predict a group consensus. Similar combinations of foresight methods could be used to enhance the study of international relations.
Klasifikace
Druh
J<sub>ost</sub> - Ostatní články v recenzovaných periodicích
CEP obor
—
OECD FORD obor
50601 - Political science
Návaznosti výsledku
Projekt
—
Návaznosti
S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach
Ostatní
Rok uplatnění
2022
Kód důvěrnosti údajů
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Údaje specifické pro druh výsledku
Název periodika
Stosunki Międzynarodowe – International Relations
ISSN
2754-2572
e-ISSN
—
Svazek periodika
2
Číslo periodika v rámci svazku
21 January
Stát vydavatele periodika
PL - Polská republika
Počet stran výsledku
16
Strana od-do
4
Kód UT WoS článku
—
EID výsledku v databázi Scopus
—