Bank-sourced transition matrixes: are banks' internal credit risk estimates Markovian?

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11230%2F22%3A10454642" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11230/22:10454642 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=TAV3E4.U.H" target="_blank" >https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=TAV3E4.U.H</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.21314/JCR.2021.015" target="_blank" >10.21314/JCR.2021.015</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Bank-sourced transition matrixes: are banks' internal credit risk estimates Markovian?

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

This study explores banks&apos; internal credit risk estimates and the associated bank-sourced transition matrixes. We empirically test the widely used Markovian property and time homogeneity assumptions at an unprecedented scale. Our unique data set consists of internal probability of default estimates from 12 global banks that employ an advanced internal ratings-based approach, covering monthly observations on 20 000 corporates over the period 2015-18. The results indicate that internal credit risk estimates do not satisfy the two assumptions, showing evidence of both path dependency and time heterogeneity even within the period of economic expansion. Banks tend to revert their rating actions, which contradicts previous findings based on data from credit rating agencies. This has significant practical implications through bank-sourced credit transition matrixes, which are becoming increasingly important as regulators begin to use more detailed credit risk data sets (eg, analytical credit data sets by the European Central Bank) with potential applications in stress testing.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Bank-sourced transition matrixes: are banks' internal credit risk estimates Markovian?

Popis výsledku anglicky

This study explores banks&apos; internal credit risk estimates and the associated bank-sourced transition matrixes. We empirically test the widely used Markovian property and time homogeneity assumptions at an unprecedented scale. Our unique data set consists of internal probability of default estimates from 12 global banks that employ an advanced internal ratings-based approach, covering monthly observations on 20 000 corporates over the period 2015-18. The results indicate that internal credit risk estimates do not satisfy the two assumptions, showing evidence of both path dependency and time heterogeneity even within the period of economic expansion. Banks tend to revert their rating actions, which contradicts previous findings based on data from credit rating agencies. This has significant practical implications through bank-sourced credit transition matrixes, which are becoming increasingly important as regulators begin to use more detailed credit risk data sets (eg, analytical credit data sets by the European Central Bank) with potential applications in stress testing.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

50201 - Economic Theory

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/GA18-05244S" target="_blank" >GA18-05244S: Inovativní přístupy k řízení úvěrových rizik</a><br>

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2022

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Journal of Credit Risk

ISSN

1744-6619

e-ISSN

1755-9723

Svazek periodika

18

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

1

Stát vydavatele periodika

GB - Spojené království Velké Británie a Severního Irska

Počet stran výsledku

28

Strana od-do

73-100

Kód UT WoS článku

000823731200003

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85127368730