Volatile energy markets, consumers and energy price expectations

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11230%2F23%3A10470682" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11230/23:10470682 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/00216208:11690/23:10470682

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=EgWZXZIh42" target="_blank" >https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=EgWZXZIh42</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.107039" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.eneco.2023.107039</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Volatile energy markets, consumers and energy price expectations

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

We conduct a survey of consumers in four EU countries (the Czech Republic, Germany, Italy and Poland) faced with supply disruptions, rising energy prices, and serious concerns about both prices and actual availability of energy inputs due to Russia&apos;s war on Ukraine. We find that people are aware of the current prices of motor fuels, and willing and able to form expectations for them in one, six, 12 and 60 months. The mean annual rate of growth of prices is positive, exceeds or is equal to the current inflation rate, is greater than the long-run inflation rate in the last 10-20 years, and declines with the length of the horizon over which the respondents are to form their expectations. At least one-third of the respondents expect the prices to decline in the future, and about one-quarter expect them to stay the same. The expectations are affected by the individual characteristics of the re-spondents and their beliefs about the causes of the current state of the energy markets. The behavioral responses announced by the respondents (change travel mode, reduce driving, replace their car with a more fuel-efficient one, etc.) appear to be realistic and well thought-out, and depend on the expected direction of the expected price changes, rather than their magnitude. By contrast, our respondents struggle with grasping the current prices per unit of electricity or natural gas, and envision higher, and considerably more uncertain, growth rates for them.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Volatile energy markets, consumers and energy price expectations

Popis výsledku anglicky

We conduct a survey of consumers in four EU countries (the Czech Republic, Germany, Italy and Poland) faced with supply disruptions, rising energy prices, and serious concerns about both prices and actual availability of energy inputs due to Russia&apos;s war on Ukraine. We find that people are aware of the current prices of motor fuels, and willing and able to form expectations for them in one, six, 12 and 60 months. The mean annual rate of growth of prices is positive, exceeds or is equal to the current inflation rate, is greater than the long-run inflation rate in the last 10-20 years, and declines with the length of the horizon over which the respondents are to form their expectations. At least one-third of the respondents expect the prices to decline in the future, and about one-quarter expect them to stay the same. The expectations are affected by the individual characteristics of the re-spondents and their beliefs about the causes of the current state of the energy markets. The behavioral responses announced by the respondents (change travel mode, reduce driving, replace their car with a more fuel-efficient one, etc.) appear to be realistic and well thought-out, and depend on the expected direction of the expected price changes, rather than their magnitude. By contrast, our respondents struggle with grasping the current prices per unit of electricity or natural gas, and envision higher, and considerably more uncertain, growth rates for them.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

50201 - Economic Theory

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/GX19-26812X" target="_blank" >GX19-26812X: Excelence v ekonomickém výzkumu energetické efektivity a modelování dopadů - FE3M</a><br>

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2023

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Energy Economics

ISSN

0140-9883

e-ISSN

1873-6181

Svazek periodika

126

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

October 2023

Stát vydavatele periodika

NL - Nizozemsko

Počet stran výsledku

23

Strana od-do

107039

Kód UT WoS článku

001083148500001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85171628794