Kessler Syndrome: System Dynamics Approach

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11320%2F16%3A10366181" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11320/16:10366181 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.systemdynamics.org/assets/conferences/2016/proceed/papers/P1296.pdf" target="_blank" >https://www.systemdynamics.org/assets/conferences/2016/proceed/papers/P1296.pdf</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Kessler Syndrome: System Dynamics Approach

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The present paper explores the Kessler Syndrome (the potentially catastrophic accumulation of debris in the Low-Earth Orbit) through System Dynamics methodology. It models satellites and three classes of debris, their fragmentation, interactions and gradual decay over 50 years. It presents three scenarios: a) a &quot;business as usual&quot; approach, which leads to exponential accumulation and growing rate of satellite losses, but no catastrophic chain reaction; b) a conflict with a large-scale deployment of Anti-Satellite Weapons, leading to accelerated accumulation and losses, but still no chain reaction; and c) cessation of all LEO satellite launches, illustrating high inertia of the system, which continues to produce more debris. Both b) and c) take place in 2040. The paper demonstrates the gravity of the situation and the necessity for a sustainable long-term solution, as orbital debris poses a threat to our future space operation even without triggering a catastrophic chain reaction.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Kessler Syndrome: System Dynamics Approach

Popis výsledku anglicky

The present paper explores the Kessler Syndrome (the potentially catastrophic accumulation of debris in the Low-Earth Orbit) through System Dynamics methodology. It models satellites and three classes of debris, their fragmentation, interactions and gradual decay over 50 years. It presents three scenarios: a) a &quot;business as usual&quot; approach, which leads to exponential accumulation and growing rate of satellite losses, but no catastrophic chain reaction; b) a conflict with a large-scale deployment of Anti-Satellite Weapons, leading to accelerated accumulation and losses, but still no chain reaction; and c) cessation of all LEO satellite launches, illustrating high inertia of the system, which continues to produce more debris. Both b) and c) take place in 2040. The paper demonstrates the gravity of the situation and the necessity for a sustainable long-term solution, as orbital debris poses a threat to our future space operation even without triggering a catastrophic chain reaction.

Druh

D - Stať ve sborníku

CEP obor

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OECD FORD obor

10201 - Computer sciences, information science, bioinformathics (hardware development to be 2.2, social aspect to be 5.8)

Projekt

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Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2016

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název statě ve sborníku

Proceedings of the 34th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society

ISBN

978-1-5108-3020-2

ISSN

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e-ISSN

neuvedeno

Počet stran výsledku

9

Strana od-do

1199-1207

Název nakladatele

Curran Associates, Inc.

Místo vydání

Red Hook, NY

Místo konání akce

Delft, Nizozemsko

Datum konání akce

17. 7. 2016

Typ akce podle státní příslušnosti

WRD - Celosvětová akce

Kód UT WoS článku

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