Kessler Syndrome: System Dynamics Model

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11320%2F18%3A10392051" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11320/18:10392051 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/00216224:14230/18:00104837

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spacepol.2018.03.003" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spacepol.2018.03.003</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.spacepol.2018.03.003" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.spacepol.2018.03.003</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Kessler Syndrome: System Dynamics Model

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The present article explores the Kessler syndrome (the potentially catastrophic accumulation of debris in the low-earth orbit) through system dynamics methodology. It models satellites and three classes of debris, their fragmentation, interactions, and gradual decay over 50 years. It presents 5 scenarios: (a) a &quot;business as usual&quot; approach, which leads to exponential accumulation and growing rate of satellite losses, but no catastrophic chain reaction; (b) a conflict with a large-scale deployment of antisatellite weapons, leading to an accelerated accumulation and losses, but still no chain reaction; (c) electromagnetic pulse scenario modeling loss of control over satellites en masse; (d) cessation of all low earth orbit (LEO) satellite launches, illustrating high inertia of the system, which continues to produce more debris; and (e) scenario representing an attempt to mitigate the situation via direct removal of some portion of inactive satellites from the LEO. All scenarios take place in 2040. The article demonstrates the gravity of the situation and the necessity for a sustainable long-term solution, as orbital debris poses a threat to our future space operation even without triggering a catastrophic chain reaction.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Kessler Syndrome: System Dynamics Model

Popis výsledku anglicky

The present article explores the Kessler syndrome (the potentially catastrophic accumulation of debris in the low-earth orbit) through system dynamics methodology. It models satellites and three classes of debris, their fragmentation, interactions, and gradual decay over 50 years. It presents 5 scenarios: (a) a &quot;business as usual&quot; approach, which leads to exponential accumulation and growing rate of satellite losses, but no catastrophic chain reaction; (b) a conflict with a large-scale deployment of antisatellite weapons, leading to an accelerated accumulation and losses, but still no chain reaction; (c) electromagnetic pulse scenario modeling loss of control over satellites en masse; (d) cessation of all low earth orbit (LEO) satellite launches, illustrating high inertia of the system, which continues to produce more debris; and (e) scenario representing an attempt to mitigate the situation via direct removal of some portion of inactive satellites from the LEO. All scenarios take place in 2040. The article demonstrates the gravity of the situation and the necessity for a sustainable long-term solution, as orbital debris poses a threat to our future space operation even without triggering a catastrophic chain reaction.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10201 - Computer sciences, information science, bioinformathics (hardware development to be 2.2, social aspect to be 5.8)

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach<br>I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2018

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Space Policy

ISSN

0265-9646

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

44-45

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

AUG

Stát vydavatele periodika

GB - Spojené království Velké Británie a Severního Irska

Počet stran výsledku

11

Strana od-do

29-39

Kód UT WoS článku

000454381000003

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85043989302