Recalculation of error growth models' parameters for the ECMWF forecast system

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11320%2F21%3A10439264" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11320/21:10439264 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=YhgX5oH_bk" target="_blank" >https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=YhgX5oH_bk</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7377-2021" target="_blank" >10.5194/gmd-14-7377-2021</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Recalculation of error growth models' parameters for the ECMWF forecast system

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

This article provides a new estimate of error growth models&apos; parameters approximating predictability curves and their differentials, calculated from data of the ECMWF forecast system over the 1986 to 2011 period. Estimates of the largest Lyapunov exponent are also provided, along with model error and the limit value of the predictability curve. The proposed correction is based on the ability of the Lorenz (2005) system to simulate the predictability curve of the ECMWF forecasting system and on comparing the parameters estimated for both these systems, as well as on comparison with the largest Lyapunov exponent (lambda = 0:35 d(-1)) and limit value of the predictability curve (E-infinity = 8:2) of the Lorenz system. Parameters are calculated from the quadratic model with and without model error, as well as by the logarithmic, general, and hyperbolic tangent models. The average value of the largest Lyapunov exponent is estimated to be in the &lt; 0.32; 0.41 &gt; d(-1) range for the ECMWF forecasting system; limit values of the predictability curves are estimated with lower theoretically derived values, and a new approach for the calculation of model error based on comparison of models is presented.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Recalculation of error growth models' parameters for the ECMWF forecast system

Popis výsledku anglicky

This article provides a new estimate of error growth models&apos; parameters approximating predictability curves and their differentials, calculated from data of the ECMWF forecast system over the 1986 to 2011 period. Estimates of the largest Lyapunov exponent are also provided, along with model error and the limit value of the predictability curve. The proposed correction is based on the ability of the Lorenz (2005) system to simulate the predictability curve of the ECMWF forecasting system and on comparing the parameters estimated for both these systems, as well as on comparison with the largest Lyapunov exponent (lambda = 0:35 d(-1)) and limit value of the predictability curve (E-infinity = 8:2) of the Lorenz system. Parameters are calculated from the quadratic model with and without model error, as well as by the logarithmic, general, and hyperbolic tangent models. The average value of the largest Lyapunov exponent is estimated to be in the &lt; 0.32; 0.41 &gt; d(-1) range for the ECMWF forecasting system; limit values of the predictability curves are estimated with lower theoretically derived values, and a new approach for the calculation of model error based on comparison of models is presented.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

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OECD FORD obor

10509 - Meteorology and atmospheric sciences

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/GA19-16066S" target="_blank" >GA19-16066S: Nelineární interakce a přenos informace v komplexních systémech s extrémními událostmi</a><br>

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2021

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Geoscientific Model Development

ISSN

1991-959X

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

14

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

12

Stát vydavatele periodika

DE - Spolková republika Německo

Počet stran výsledku

13

Strana od-do

7377-7389

Kód UT WoS článku

000724552800001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

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