Prediction error growth in a more realistic atmospheric toy model with three spatiotemporal scales

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11320%2F22%3A10453406" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11320/22:10453406 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=_ZJ9olJyuL" target="_blank" >https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=_ZJ9olJyuL</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4147-2022" target="_blank" >10.5194/gmd-15-4147-2022</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Prediction error growth in a more realistic atmospheric toy model with three spatiotemporal scales

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

This article studies the growth of the prediction error over lead time in a schematic model of atmospheric transport. Inspired by the Lorenz (2005) system, we mimic an atmospheric variable in one dimension, which can be decomposed into three spatiotemporal scales. We identify parameter values that provide spatiotemporal scaling and chaotic behavior. Instead of exponential growth of the forecast error over time, we observe a more complex behavior. We test a power law and the quadratic hypothesis for the scale-dependent error growth. The power law is valid for the first days of the growth, and with an included saturation effect, we extend its validity to the entire period of growth. The theory explaining the parameters of the power law is confirmed. Although the quadratic hypothesis cannot be completely rejected and could serve as a first guess, the hypothesis&apos;s parameters are not theoretically justifiable in the model. In addition, we study the initial error growth for the ECMWF forecast system (500 hPa geopotential height) over the 1986 to 2011 period. For these data, it is impossible to assess which of the error growth descriptions is more appropriate, but the extended power law, which is theoretically substantiated and valid for the Lorenz system, provides an excellent fit to the average initial error growth of the ECMWF forecast system. Fitting the parameters, we conclude that there is an intrinsic limit of predictability after 22 d.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Prediction error growth in a more realistic atmospheric toy model with three spatiotemporal scales

Popis výsledku anglicky

This article studies the growth of the prediction error over lead time in a schematic model of atmospheric transport. Inspired by the Lorenz (2005) system, we mimic an atmospheric variable in one dimension, which can be decomposed into three spatiotemporal scales. We identify parameter values that provide spatiotemporal scaling and chaotic behavior. Instead of exponential growth of the forecast error over time, we observe a more complex behavior. We test a power law and the quadratic hypothesis for the scale-dependent error growth. The power law is valid for the first days of the growth, and with an included saturation effect, we extend its validity to the entire period of growth. The theory explaining the parameters of the power law is confirmed. Although the quadratic hypothesis cannot be completely rejected and could serve as a first guess, the hypothesis&apos;s parameters are not theoretically justifiable in the model. In addition, we study the initial error growth for the ECMWF forecast system (500 hPa geopotential height) over the 1986 to 2011 period. For these data, it is impossible to assess which of the error growth descriptions is more appropriate, but the extended power law, which is theoretically substantiated and valid for the Lorenz system, provides an excellent fit to the average initial error growth of the ECMWF forecast system. Fitting the parameters, we conclude that there is an intrinsic limit of predictability after 22 d.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

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OECD FORD obor

10509 - Meteorology and atmospheric sciences

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/GA19-16066S" target="_blank" >GA19-16066S: Nelineární interakce a přenos informace v komplexních systémech s extrémními událostmi</a><br>

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2022

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Geoscientific Model Development

ISSN

1991-959X

e-ISSN

1991-9603

Svazek periodika

15

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

10

Stát vydavatele periodika

DE - Spolková republika Německo

Počet stran výsledku

15

Strana od-do

4147-4161

Kód UT WoS článku

000803020400001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

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