Scenarios of Köppen-Trewartha climate types in Europe based on GCM-RCM combined projections

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11320%2F25%3A10509067" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11320/25:10509067 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=Jiv2ZnhVPQ" target="_blank" >https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=Jiv2ZnhVPQ</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-025-05806-3" target="_blank" >10.1007/s00704-025-05806-3</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Scenarios of Köppen-Trewartha climate types in Europe based on GCM-RCM combined projections

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Climate classifications represent a convenient tool for an integrated analysis of possible future climate changes. We employ the K &amp; ouml;ppen-Trewartha classification (KTC). While global climate models (GCMs) are the principal means of climate research on a planetary scale, regional climate models (RCMs) can provide information on finer scales. The hybrid method enables combining the advantages of both kinds of models while incorporating the whole ensemble of available GCMs, unlike RCM ensembles with limited number of driving GCMs. We assess projected changes in the distribution of KTC types over Europe based on three sets of projections: results of the hybrid method combining two sets of GCMs (CMIP6 and CMIP5) with the EURO-CORDEX RCMs, and the original EURO-CORDEX simulations driven by CMIP5. We look into changes in geographical distribution of KTC types throughout the 21st century under two socio-economic scenarios. We also investigate the boundary shifts between Europe&apos;s most common types, D (temperate climate) and E (boreal climate). The continental Ec type and tundra type Ft are projected to shrink radically by the end of the 21st century. Oceanic Eo and continental Dc are also projected to decline, but not so dramatically. Oceanic temperate type Do, humid subtropical type Cf, and steppe climate BS are projected to expand. One of the most striking outcomes is the expansion of dry climate types BS and Cs in parts of southern and south-eastern Europe. The boundary between subtypes of D and E is expected to shift northward and eastward. The hybrid method provides an easy-to-apply approach to investigate uncertainties connected with the limited number of driving GCMs within the RCM ensembles. We provide an updated CMIP6-based projections of KTC climate types over Europe as the first assessment before the new EURO-CORDEX simulations dynamically downscaling CMIP6 will be available. The results can serve as a basis for adaptation strategies and planning.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Scenarios of Köppen-Trewartha climate types in Europe based on GCM-RCM combined projections

Popis výsledku anglicky

Climate classifications represent a convenient tool for an integrated analysis of possible future climate changes. We employ the K &amp; ouml;ppen-Trewartha classification (KTC). While global climate models (GCMs) are the principal means of climate research on a planetary scale, regional climate models (RCMs) can provide information on finer scales. The hybrid method enables combining the advantages of both kinds of models while incorporating the whole ensemble of available GCMs, unlike RCM ensembles with limited number of driving GCMs. We assess projected changes in the distribution of KTC types over Europe based on three sets of projections: results of the hybrid method combining two sets of GCMs (CMIP6 and CMIP5) with the EURO-CORDEX RCMs, and the original EURO-CORDEX simulations driven by CMIP5. We look into changes in geographical distribution of KTC types throughout the 21st century under two socio-economic scenarios. We also investigate the boundary shifts between Europe&apos;s most common types, D (temperate climate) and E (boreal climate). The continental Ec type and tundra type Ft are projected to shrink radically by the end of the 21st century. Oceanic Eo and continental Dc are also projected to decline, but not so dramatically. Oceanic temperate type Do, humid subtropical type Cf, and steppe climate BS are projected to expand. One of the most striking outcomes is the expansion of dry climate types BS and Cs in parts of southern and south-eastern Europe. The boundary between subtypes of D and E is expected to shift northward and eastward. The hybrid method provides an easy-to-apply approach to investigate uncertainties connected with the limited number of driving GCMs within the RCM ensembles. We provide an updated CMIP6-based projections of KTC climate types over Europe as the first assessment before the new EURO-CORDEX simulations dynamically downscaling CMIP6 will be available. The results can serve as a basis for adaptation strategies and planning.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10509 - Meteorology and atmospheric sciences

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/EH22_008%2F0004605" target="_blank" >EH22_008/0004605: Přírodní a antropogenní georizika</a><br>

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)<br>I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2025

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Theorectical and Applied Climatology

ISSN

0177-798X

e-ISSN

1434-4483

Svazek periodika

156

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

11

Stát vydavatele periodika

DE - Spolková republika Německo

Počet stran výsledku

14

Strana od-do

596

Kód UT WoS článku

001595864700002

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-105019239797