The Projected Changes in the Surface Energy Budget of the CMIP5 and EURO-CORDEX Models: Are We Heading toward Wetter Growing Seasons in Central Europe?

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F86652079%3A_____%2F25%3A00619487" target="_blank" >RIV/86652079:_____/25:00619487 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/62156489:43210/25:43926897

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/hydr/26/4/JHM-D-24-0017.1.xml" target="_blank" >https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/hydr/26/4/JHM-D-24-0017.1.xml</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-24-0017.1" target="_blank" >10.1175/JHM-D-24-0017.1</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

The Projected Changes in the Surface Energy Budget of the CMIP5 and EURO-CORDEX Models: Are We Heading toward Wetter Growing Seasons in Central Europe?

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

We analyze the surface energy budget from four climate model ensembles and its future changes in the twenty-first century under the RCP8.5 or shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) 5-8.5 scenario. High-resolution European domain of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) regional climate models (RCMs) and their driving CMIP5 global climate models (CMIP5-D) are first tested in central Europe against observational datasets. Evaluation reveals the added value of RCMs in terms of spatial variability and smaller biases. CMIP5-D are affected by the positive bias of global irradiance that propagates into other radiation and heat fluxes. There are strong differences in the projected surface energy budget components between RCMs and CMIP5-D. There is an increase in global irradiance for most of the year in CMIP5-D and other GCM ensembles that is translated into a year-round enhancement of the absorbed solar energy and balanced by higher latent heat flux, except in summer, when the sensible heat flux rises strongly. Together with strong warming and reduced precipitation in summer, this leads to warm, sunny, and dry conditions with reduced evapotranspiration and higher drought stress for vegetation. In the RCMs, the reduction in global irradiance dominates, and it is translated into a round-year reduction in the net balance of longwave radiation and stronger latent heat flux. The first months of the growing season show weaker warming associated with higher evapotranspiration and precipitation. In summer, precipitation drops and global irradiance and warming rise, but they fall behind the changes in the GCMs. Compared to GCMs, there are less visible signs of conditions leading to a reduction in evapotranspiration or a shortage of soil water in the RCMs in summer.

Název v anglickém jazyce

The Projected Changes in the Surface Energy Budget of the CMIP5 and EURO-CORDEX Models: Are We Heading toward Wetter Growing Seasons in Central Europe?

Popis výsledku anglicky

We analyze the surface energy budget from four climate model ensembles and its future changes in the twenty-first century under the RCP8.5 or shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) 5-8.5 scenario. High-resolution European domain of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) regional climate models (RCMs) and their driving CMIP5 global climate models (CMIP5-D) are first tested in central Europe against observational datasets. Evaluation reveals the added value of RCMs in terms of spatial variability and smaller biases. CMIP5-D are affected by the positive bias of global irradiance that propagates into other radiation and heat fluxes. There are strong differences in the projected surface energy budget components between RCMs and CMIP5-D. There is an increase in global irradiance for most of the year in CMIP5-D and other GCM ensembles that is translated into a year-round enhancement of the absorbed solar energy and balanced by higher latent heat flux, except in summer, when the sensible heat flux rises strongly. Together with strong warming and reduced precipitation in summer, this leads to warm, sunny, and dry conditions with reduced evapotranspiration and higher drought stress for vegetation. In the RCMs, the reduction in global irradiance dominates, and it is translated into a round-year reduction in the net balance of longwave radiation and stronger latent heat flux. The first months of the growing season show weaker warming associated with higher evapotranspiration and precipitation. In summer, precipitation drops and global irradiance and warming rise, but they fall behind the changes in the GCMs. Compared to GCMs, there are less visible signs of conditions leading to a reduction in evapotranspiration or a shortage of soil water in the RCMs in summer.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10509 - Meteorology and atmospheric sciences

Projekt

Výsledek vznikl pri realizaci vícero projektů. Více informací v záložce Projekty.

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2025

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Journal of Hydrometeorology

ISSN

1525-755X

e-ISSN

1525-7541

Svazek periodika

26

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

4

Stát vydavatele periodika

US - Spojené státy americké

Počet stran výsledku

18

Strana od-do

481-499

Kód UT WoS článku

001472476700001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-105004359216