Discord at Home, Discord in the World : Is Turkey, NATO’s Eastern Frontier, Sustainably Stable and Peaceful?

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216224%3A14230%2F18%3A00106896" target="_blank" >RIV/00216224:14230/18:00106896 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="http://vojenskerozhledy.cz/kategorie-clanku/bezpecnostni-a-obranna-politika/spory-vnitrni-ve-svete" target="_blank" >http://vojenskerozhledy.cz/kategorie-clanku/bezpecnostni-a-obranna-politika/spory-vnitrni-ve-svete</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.3849/2336-2995.27.2018.04.049-063" target="_blank" >10.3849/2336-2995.27.2018.04.049-063</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Discord at Home, Discord in the World : Is Turkey, NATO’s Eastern Frontier, Sustainably Stable and Peaceful?

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The goal of this paper is to determine if it is likely for Turkey to remain a stable country that will avoid serious internal conflicts and violent conflicts abroad. The paper examines long-term cultural and civilizational variables of cosmopolitanism and rationality. It examines indicators that are more immediately associated with the escalation of an internal conflict: violent criminality, youth unemployment rate, income inequality, corruption perception, and political terror. In the end, it examines the level of militarization and the evolution and current state of civil-military relations. It concludes that most of the indicators do not bode well for the stability and democratic consolidation of Turkey. The reason Turkey has not succumbed to political violence and social instability is likely due to its high level of political repression. Given the characteristics of the Turkish society, two basic scenarios for future development are feasible: Turkey can either become much less stable and a victim to social discord with a chance of dangerous escalation; or it will cement its authoritarianism and manage social order by draconian policing, disproportionate “counter-terrorism” laws and disregard for the rule of law. Neither of these scenarios is favourable for its NATO allies, who must engage Turkey and work within the framework of existing alliances and international organizations to mitigate the risks of Turkey either becoming a rogue player or a state embroiled in a civil conflict.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Discord at Home, Discord in the World : Is Turkey, NATO’s Eastern Frontier, Sustainably Stable and Peaceful?

Popis výsledku anglicky

The goal of this paper is to determine if it is likely for Turkey to remain a stable country that will avoid serious internal conflicts and violent conflicts abroad. The paper examines long-term cultural and civilizational variables of cosmopolitanism and rationality. It examines indicators that are more immediately associated with the escalation of an internal conflict: violent criminality, youth unemployment rate, income inequality, corruption perception, and political terror. In the end, it examines the level of militarization and the evolution and current state of civil-military relations. It concludes that most of the indicators do not bode well for the stability and democratic consolidation of Turkey. The reason Turkey has not succumbed to political violence and social instability is likely due to its high level of political repression. Given the characteristics of the Turkish society, two basic scenarios for future development are feasible: Turkey can either become much less stable and a victim to social discord with a chance of dangerous escalation; or it will cement its authoritarianism and manage social order by draconian policing, disproportionate “counter-terrorism” laws and disregard for the rule of law. Neither of these scenarios is favourable for its NATO allies, who must engage Turkey and work within the framework of existing alliances and international organizations to mitigate the risks of Turkey either becoming a rogue player or a state embroiled in a civil conflict.

Druh

J_ost - Ostatní články v recenzovaných periodicích

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

50601 - Political science

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/VI20172020094" target="_blank" >VI20172020094: Metodika predikce, včasného varování a prevence hrozeb plynoucích z regionálních ozbrojených konfliktů pro vnitřní bezpečnost ČR</a><br>

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2018

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Vojenské rozhledy

ISSN

1210-3292

e-ISSN

2336-2995

Svazek periodika

27

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

4

Stát vydavatele periodika

CZ - Česká republika

Počet stran výsledku

15

Strana od-do

49-63

Kód UT WoS článku

000610603100004

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

—