Discord at Home, Discord in the World : Is Turkey, NATO’s Eastern Frontier, Sustainably Stable and Peaceful?

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216224%3A14230%2F18%3A00106897" target="_blank" >RIV/00216224:14230/18:00106897 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

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DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Discord at Home, Discord in the World : Is Turkey, NATO’s Eastern Frontier, Sustainably Stable and Peaceful?

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The aim of this presentation is to determine if it is likely for Turkey to remain a stable country that will avoid serious internal conflicts and violent conflicts abroad. The keynote examines long-term cultural and civilizational variables of cosmopolitanism and rationality. It examines indicators that are more immediately associated with escalation of internal conflict: violent criminality, youth unemployment rate income inequality, corruption perception, and political terror. In the end it examines the level of militarization and the evolution and current state of civil-military relations. It concludes that most of the indicators do not bode well for the stability and democratic consolidation of Turkey. The reason Turkey has not succumbed to violence and social instability is likely due to its high level of political repression. The author concludes that given the characteristics of the Turkish society, two basic scenarios for future development are feasible: Turkey can either become much less stable and a victim to social discord with a chance of dangerous escalation; or it will cement its authoritarianism and manage social order by draconian policing, disproportionate “counter-terrorism” laws and a disregard for the rule of law. Neither of these scenarios is favorable for its NATO allies, who must engage Turkey and work within the framework of existing alliances and international organizations to mitigate the risks of Turkey either becoming a rogue player or a state embroiled in a civil conflict.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Discord at Home, Discord in the World : Is Turkey, NATO’s Eastern Frontier, Sustainably Stable and Peaceful?

Popis výsledku anglicky

The aim of this presentation is to determine if it is likely for Turkey to remain a stable country that will avoid serious internal conflicts and violent conflicts abroad. The keynote examines long-term cultural and civilizational variables of cosmopolitanism and rationality. It examines indicators that are more immediately associated with escalation of internal conflict: violent criminality, youth unemployment rate income inequality, corruption perception, and political terror. In the end it examines the level of militarization and the evolution and current state of civil-military relations. It concludes that most of the indicators do not bode well for the stability and democratic consolidation of Turkey. The reason Turkey has not succumbed to violence and social instability is likely due to its high level of political repression. The author concludes that given the characteristics of the Turkish society, two basic scenarios for future development are feasible: Turkey can either become much less stable and a victim to social discord with a chance of dangerous escalation; or it will cement its authoritarianism and manage social order by draconian policing, disproportionate “counter-terrorism” laws and a disregard for the rule of law. Neither of these scenarios is favorable for its NATO allies, who must engage Turkey and work within the framework of existing alliances and international organizations to mitigate the risks of Turkey either becoming a rogue player or a state embroiled in a civil conflict.

Druh

O - Ostatní výsledky

CEP obor

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OECD FORD obor

50601 - Political science

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/VI20172020094" target="_blank" >VI20172020094: Metodika predikce, včasného varování a prevence hrozeb plynoucích z regionálních ozbrojených konfliktů pro vnitřní bezpečnost ČR</a><br>

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2018

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů