Formalized Scenario Building Apadpation for Conflict Prevention

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216224%3A14230%2F20%3A00114805" target="_blank" >RIV/00216224:14230/20:00114805 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.strategii21.ro/A/2020-04.%20STRATEGIC%20CHANGES%20IN%20SECURITY%20AND%20INTERNATIONAL%20RELATIONS/FSA_2020_VOLUMUL%202.pdf" target="_blank" >https://www.strategii21.ro/A/2020-04.%20STRATEGIC%20CHANGES%20IN%20SECURITY%20AND%20INTERNATIONAL%20RELATIONS/FSA_2020_VOLUMUL%202.pdf</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

—

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Formalized Scenario Building Apadpation for Conflict Prevention

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Scenario-building methods are broadly employed to assist prediction and planning across a broad field of applications. Security environment analysis and conflict prevention planning has predominantly relied on long-term trend assessments by experts and infrequently on basic scenario building. The mode of scenario building was characterized by high-volume or extreme case methodology. The high number of possible scenarios and assignment of probabilities present key disadvantages. The paper proposes an adaptation of Trend Impact Analysis (TIA) methodology to security environment analysis and conflict prevention by illustrating this application on a dataset of 12 monitored trend factors specifically tested on a set of 316 cases. The application shows that TIA combines the advantages of quantitative and scenario-building methods to systematically reduce the number of probable scenarios and increase the precision of predictions necessary for effective analysis and conflict prevention. This application is highly relevant to both state and international medium and long-term conflict prevention and threat mitigation strategies

Název v anglickém jazyce

Formalized Scenario Building Apadpation for Conflict Prevention

Popis výsledku anglicky

Scenario-building methods are broadly employed to assist prediction and planning across a broad field of applications. Security environment analysis and conflict prevention planning has predominantly relied on long-term trend assessments by experts and infrequently on basic scenario building. The mode of scenario building was characterized by high-volume or extreme case methodology. The high number of possible scenarios and assignment of probabilities present key disadvantages. The paper proposes an adaptation of Trend Impact Analysis (TIA) methodology to security environment analysis and conflict prevention by illustrating this application on a dataset of 12 monitored trend factors specifically tested on a set of 316 cases. The application shows that TIA combines the advantages of quantitative and scenario-building methods to systematically reduce the number of probable scenarios and increase the precision of predictions necessary for effective analysis and conflict prevention. This application is highly relevant to both state and international medium and long-term conflict prevention and threat mitigation strategies

Druh

D - Stať ve sborníku

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

50601 - Political science

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/VI20172020094" target="_blank" >VI20172020094: Metodika predikce, včasného varování a prevence hrozeb plynoucích z regionálních ozbrojených konfliktů pro vnitřní bezpečnost ČR</a><br>

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2020

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název statě ve sborníku

PROCEEDINGS THE 16TH INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC CONFERENCE “STRATEGIES XXI” : STRATEGIC CHANGES IN SECURITY AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, Volume 16, Part 2

ISBN

—

ISSN

2668-1994

e-ISSN

2668-2001

Počet stran výsledku

15

Strana od-do

9-23

Název nakladatele

“Carol I” National Defence University

Místo vydání

Bucharest

Místo konání akce

Bucharest

Datum konání akce

9. 4. 2020

Typ akce podle státní příslušnosti

WRD - Celosvětová akce

Kód UT WoS článku

—