Extreme precipitation totals under present and future climatic conditions according to regional climate models

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216224%3A14310%2F17%3A00096252" target="_blank" >RIV/00216224:14310/17:00096252 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

—

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

—

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Extreme precipitation totals under present and future climatic conditions according to regional climate models

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

It is very likely that the intensity of precipitation over land in the middle latitudes is going to increase by 2100.This chapter deals with the comparison between measured (1981–2010) and simulated (2010–2100) three-day precipitation totals across the area of the Czech Republic. The future precipitation totals were calculated on the basis of five regional climate models (CNRM_ALADIN, EC-EARTH, EC-EARTH_RACMO, MOHC_HADGEM a MPI-ESM-LR) for various recurrence intervals (N=5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years) and emission scenarios (4.5 and 8.5). The outputs of models were compared for three defined periods (2021–2040, 2041–2060 and 2081–2100) with emphasis on summer (JJA) and annual precipitation. The regional climate models predict in most cases a marked increase in precipitation totals for a determined recurrence interval which is dependent upon an applied emission scenario and analysed period. However, spatial variability maintains similar patterns to those being formed at the present time. The totals of the acquired three-day precipitation model should serve as the basis for the constitution of the next adaptive strategy of the Czech Republic to 2100.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Extreme precipitation totals under present and future climatic conditions according to regional climate models

Popis výsledku anglicky

It is very likely that the intensity of precipitation over land in the middle latitudes is going to increase by 2100.This chapter deals with the comparison between measured (1981–2010) and simulated (2010–2100) three-day precipitation totals across the area of the Czech Republic. The future precipitation totals were calculated on the basis of five regional climate models (CNRM_ALADIN, EC-EARTH, EC-EARTH_RACMO, MOHC_HADGEM a MPI-ESM-LR) for various recurrence intervals (N=5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years) and emission scenarios (4.5 and 8.5). The outputs of models were compared for three defined periods (2021–2040, 2041–2060 and 2081–2100) with emphasis on summer (JJA) and annual precipitation. The regional climate models predict in most cases a marked increase in precipitation totals for a determined recurrence interval which is dependent upon an applied emission scenario and analysed period. However, spatial variability maintains similar patterns to those being formed at the present time. The totals of the acquired three-day precipitation model should serve as the basis for the constitution of the next adaptive strategy of the Czech Republic to 2100.

Druh

C - Kapitola v odborné knize

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10500 - Earth and related environmental sciences

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2017

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název knihy nebo sborníku

Climate change adaptation pathways from molecules to society

ISBN

9788087902172

Počet stran výsledku

11

Strana od-do

27-37

Počet stran knihy

159

Název nakladatele

Global Change Research Institute, Czech Academy of Sciences

Místo vydání

Brno

Kód UT WoS kapitoly

—