Extreme precipitation totals under present and future climate according to regional climate models

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F86652079%3A_____%2F16%3A00470786" target="_blank" >RIV/86652079:_____/16:00470786 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

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DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Extreme precipitation totals under present and future climate according to regional climate models

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

It is very likely that the intensity of extreme precipitation over land in the middle latitudes is going to increase by 2100.This chapter deals with comparison between measured (1981–2010) and simulated (2010–2100) three-day precipitation totals on the area of the Czech Republic. The future precipitation totals were calculated on the basis of five regional climate models (CNRM_ALADIN, EC-EARTH, EC-EARTH_RACMO, MOHC_HADGEM a MPI-ESM-LR) for various recurrence intervals (N=5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years) and emission scenarios (4.5 and 8.5). The outputs of models were compared for three defined periods (2021–2040, 2041–2060 and 2081–2100) with emphasis on summer (JJA) and annual precipitation. The regional climate models predict in most cases marked increase of precipitation totals for determined recurrence interval in dependence on applied emission scenario and analysed period. However, spatial variability keeps the similar patterns as at present. Acquired model three-day precipitation totals should serve as the basis for constitution of the next adaptive strategy of the Czech Republic to 2100.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Extreme precipitation totals under present and future climate according to regional climate models

Popis výsledku anglicky

It is very likely that the intensity of extreme precipitation over land in the middle latitudes is going to increase by 2100.This chapter deals with comparison between measured (1981–2010) and simulated (2010–2100) three-day precipitation totals on the area of the Czech Republic. The future precipitation totals were calculated on the basis of five regional climate models (CNRM_ALADIN, EC-EARTH, EC-EARTH_RACMO, MOHC_HADGEM a MPI-ESM-LR) for various recurrence intervals (N=5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years) and emission scenarios (4.5 and 8.5). The outputs of models were compared for three defined periods (2021–2040, 2041–2060 and 2081–2100) with emphasis on summer (JJA) and annual precipitation. The regional climate models predict in most cases marked increase of precipitation totals for determined recurrence interval in dependence on applied emission scenario and analysed period. However, spatial variability keeps the similar patterns as at present. Acquired model three-day precipitation totals should serve as the basis for constitution of the next adaptive strategy of the Czech Republic to 2100.

Druh

C - Kapitola v odborné knize

CEP obor

DG - Vědy o atmosféře, meteorologie

OECD FORD obor

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Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/LO1415" target="_blank" >LO1415: CzechGlobe 2020 - Rozvoj Centra pro studium dopadů globální změny klimatu</a><br>

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2016

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název knihy nebo sborníku

Global Change & Ecosystems

ISBN

978-80-87902-17-2

Počet stran výsledku

11

Strana od-do

27-37

Počet stran knihy

160

Název nakladatele

Ústav výzkumu globální změny AV ČR, v. v

Místo vydání

Brno

Kód UT WoS kapitoly

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