Future Changes in European Severe Convection Environments in a Regional Climate Model Ensemble

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216224%3A14310%2F17%3A00102013" target="_blank" >RIV/00216224:14310/17:00102013 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0777.1" target="_blank" >http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0777.1</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0777.1" target="_blank" >10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0777.1</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Future Changes in European Severe Convection Environments in a Regional Climate Model Ensemble

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The occurrence of environmental conditions favorable for severe convective storms was assessed in an ensemble of 14 regional climate models covering Europe and the Mediterranean with a horizontal grid spacing of 0.448. These conditions included the collocated presence of latent instability and strong deep-layer (surface to 500 hPa) wind shear, which is conducive to the severe andwell-organized convective storms. The occurrence of precipitation in the models was used as a proxy for convective initiation. Two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were investigated by comparing two future periods (2021–50 and 2071–2100) to a historical period (1971–2000) for each of these scenarios. The ensemble simulates a robust increase (change larger than twice the ensemble sample standard deviation) in the frequency of occurrence of unstable environments (lifted index &lt; -2 K) across central and south-central Europe in the RCP8.5 scenario in the late twenty-first century. This increase coincides with the increase in lower-tropospheric moisture. Smaller, less robust changes were found until midcentury in the RCP8.5 scenario and in the RCP4.5 scenario.Changes in the frequency of situations with strong (&gt; 15 m/s) deep-layer shear were found to be small and not robust, except across far northern Europe, where a decrease in shear is projected. By the end of the century, the simultaneous occurrence of latent instability, strong deep-layer shear, andmodel precipitation is simulated to increase by up to 100% across central and eastern Europe in the RCP8.5 and by 30%–50% in the RCP4.5 scenario. Until midcentury, increases in the 10%–25%range are forecast formost regions.Alarge intermodel variability is present in the ensemble and is primarily due to the uncertainties in the frequency of the occurrence of unstable environments.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Future Changes in European Severe Convection Environments in a Regional Climate Model Ensemble

Popis výsledku anglicky

The occurrence of environmental conditions favorable for severe convective storms was assessed in an ensemble of 14 regional climate models covering Europe and the Mediterranean with a horizontal grid spacing of 0.448. These conditions included the collocated presence of latent instability and strong deep-layer (surface to 500 hPa) wind shear, which is conducive to the severe andwell-organized convective storms. The occurrence of precipitation in the models was used as a proxy for convective initiation. Two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were investigated by comparing two future periods (2021–50 and 2071–2100) to a historical period (1971–2000) for each of these scenarios. The ensemble simulates a robust increase (change larger than twice the ensemble sample standard deviation) in the frequency of occurrence of unstable environments (lifted index &lt; -2 K) across central and south-central Europe in the RCP8.5 scenario in the late twenty-first century. This increase coincides with the increase in lower-tropospheric moisture. Smaller, less robust changes were found until midcentury in the RCP8.5 scenario and in the RCP4.5 scenario.Changes in the frequency of situations with strong (&gt; 15 m/s) deep-layer shear were found to be small and not robust, except across far northern Europe, where a decrease in shear is projected. By the end of the century, the simultaneous occurrence of latent instability, strong deep-layer shear, andmodel precipitation is simulated to increase by up to 100% across central and eastern Europe in the RCP8.5 and by 30%–50% in the RCP4.5 scenario. Until midcentury, increases in the 10%–25%range are forecast formost regions.Alarge intermodel variability is present in the ensemble and is primarily due to the uncertainties in the frequency of the occurrence of unstable environments.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10500 - Earth and related environmental sciences

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Rok uplatnění

2017

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Journal of Climate

ISSN

0894-8755

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

30

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

17

Stát vydavatele periodika

US - Spojené státy americké

Počet stran výsledku

24

Strana od-do

6771-6794

Kód UT WoS článku

000407276600011

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85027253013