Projecting potential future shifts in species composition of European urban plant communities

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216224%3A14310%2F18%3A00101053" target="_blank" >RIV/00216224:14310/18:00101053 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/67985939:_____/18:00493776

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ddi.12725" target="_blank" >https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ddi.12725</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12725" target="_blank" >10.1111/ddi.12725</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Projecting potential future shifts in species composition of European urban plant communities

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Aim: Urban floras are composed of species of different origin, both native and alien, and with various traits and niches. It is likely that these species will respond to the ongoing climate change in different ways, resulting in future species compositions with no analogues in current European cities. Our goal was to estimate potential shifts in plant species composition in European cities under different scenarios of climate change for the 21st century. - Location: Europe. - Methods: Potential changes in the distribution of 375 species currently growing in 60 large cities in Southern, Central and Western Europe were modelled using generalized linear models and four climate change projections for two future periods (2041-2060 and 2061-2080). These projections were based on two global climate models (CCSM4 and MIROC-ESM) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (2.6 and 8.5). - Results: Results were similar across all climate projections, suggesting that the composition of urban plant communities will change considerably due to future climate change. However, even under the most severe climate change scenario, native and alien species will respond to climate change similarly. Many currently established species will decline and others, especially annuals currently restricted to Southern Europe, will spread to northern cities. In contrast, perennial herbs, woody plants and most species with temperate continental and oceanic distribution ranges will make up a smaller proportion of future European urban plant communities in comparison with the present communities. - Main conclusions: The projected 21st century climate change will lead to considerable changes in the species composition of urban floras. These changes will affect the structure and functioning of urban plant communities.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Projecting potential future shifts in species composition of European urban plant communities

Popis výsledku anglicky

Aim: Urban floras are composed of species of different origin, both native and alien, and with various traits and niches. It is likely that these species will respond to the ongoing climate change in different ways, resulting in future species compositions with no analogues in current European cities. Our goal was to estimate potential shifts in plant species composition in European cities under different scenarios of climate change for the 21st century. - Location: Europe. - Methods: Potential changes in the distribution of 375 species currently growing in 60 large cities in Southern, Central and Western Europe were modelled using generalized linear models and four climate change projections for two future periods (2041-2060 and 2061-2080). These projections were based on two global climate models (CCSM4 and MIROC-ESM) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (2.6 and 8.5). - Results: Results were similar across all climate projections, suggesting that the composition of urban plant communities will change considerably due to future climate change. However, even under the most severe climate change scenario, native and alien species will respond to climate change similarly. Many currently established species will decline and others, especially annuals currently restricted to Southern Europe, will spread to northern cities. In contrast, perennial herbs, woody plants and most species with temperate continental and oceanic distribution ranges will make up a smaller proportion of future European urban plant communities in comparison with the present communities. - Main conclusions: The projected 21st century climate change will lead to considerable changes in the species composition of urban floras. These changes will affect the structure and functioning of urban plant communities.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10600 - Biological sciences

Projekt

Výsledek vznikl pri realizaci vícero projektů. Více informací v záložce Projekty.

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2018

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Diversity and Distributions

ISSN

1366-9516

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

24

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

6

Stát vydavatele periodika

GB - Spojené království Velké Británie a Severního Irska

Počet stran výsledku

11

Strana od-do

765-775

Kód UT WoS článku

000433571100005

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85042144144