Future land-use change and its impact on terrestrial ecosystem carbon pool evolution along the Silk Road under SDG scenarios

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216224%3A14310%2F23%3A00130497" target="_blank" >RIV/00216224:14310/23:00130497 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2023.03.012" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2023.03.012</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2023.03.012" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.scib.2023.03.012</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Future land-use change and its impact on terrestrial ecosystem carbon pool evolution along the Silk Road under SDG scenarios

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Sustainable development goals (SDGs) in the United Nations 2030 Agenda call for action by all nations to promote economic prosperity while protecting the planet. Projection of future land-use change under SDG scenarios is a new attempt to scientifically achieve the SDGs. Herein, we proposed four scenario assumptions based on the SDGs, including the sustainable economy (ECO), sustainable grain (GRA), sustainable environment (ENV), and reference (REF) scenarios. We forecasted land-use change along the Silk Road (resolution: 300 m) and compared the impacts of urban expansion and forest conversion on terrestrial carbon pools. There were significant differences in future land use change and carbon stocks, under the four SDG scenarios, by 2030. In the ENV scenario, the trend of decreasing forest land was mitigated, and forest carbon stocks in China increased by approximately 0.60% compared to 2020. In the GRA scenario, the decreasing rate of cultivated land area has slowed down. Cultivated land area in South and Southeast Asia only shows an increasing trend in the GRA scenario, while it shows a decreasing trend in other SDG scenarios. The ECO scenario showed highest carbon losses associated with increased urban expansion. The study enhances our understanding of how SDGs can contribute to mitigate future environmental degradation via accurate simulations that can be applied on a global scale.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Future land-use change and its impact on terrestrial ecosystem carbon pool evolution along the Silk Road under SDG scenarios

Popis výsledku anglicky

Sustainable development goals (SDGs) in the United Nations 2030 Agenda call for action by all nations to promote economic prosperity while protecting the planet. Projection of future land-use change under SDG scenarios is a new attempt to scientifically achieve the SDGs. Herein, we proposed four scenario assumptions based on the SDGs, including the sustainable economy (ECO), sustainable grain (GRA), sustainable environment (ENV), and reference (REF) scenarios. We forecasted land-use change along the Silk Road (resolution: 300 m) and compared the impacts of urban expansion and forest conversion on terrestrial carbon pools. There were significant differences in future land use change and carbon stocks, under the four SDG scenarios, by 2030. In the ENV scenario, the trend of decreasing forest land was mitigated, and forest carbon stocks in China increased by approximately 0.60% compared to 2020. In the GRA scenario, the decreasing rate of cultivated land area has slowed down. Cultivated land area in South and Southeast Asia only shows an increasing trend in the GRA scenario, while it shows a decreasing trend in other SDG scenarios. The ECO scenario showed highest carbon losses associated with increased urban expansion. The study enhances our understanding of how SDGs can contribute to mitigate future environmental degradation via accurate simulations that can be applied on a global scale.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10500 - Earth and related environmental sciences

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2023

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Science Bulletin

ISSN

2095-9273

e-ISSN

2095-9281

Svazek periodika

68

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

7

Stát vydavatele periodika

NL - Nizozemsko

Počet stran výsledku

10

Strana od-do

740-749

Kód UT WoS článku

000985269800001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85150276712