Which Government Bond Spread Predicts the Future Economic Growth the Best?

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

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Výsledek na webu

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DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Which Government Bond Spread Predicts the Future Economic Growth the Best?

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The spread between long term and short term interest rates is a valuable forecasting tool. The steepness of the yield curve should be an excellent indicator of a possible future economic activity. A rise in the short rate tends to flatten the yield curve as well as to slow down real economic growth the near term. The relationship between the spread and future GDP activity was proved already before. One question remains – which spread is the best for the future prediction? Is it the spread between sovereign 10-year bonds and 3-month bonds or 15-year and 3- month or 10-year and 1-year sovereign bonds? This paper aimed to analyze which spread is the most suitable for predicting of future economic growth in countries of V4 (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia) between the years 2000 and 2015. We proved that in these selected countries the best spread is a spread of 5-year and 3-month government bonds. The second best spread is spread of 5-year and 1-year government bonds.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Which Government Bond Spread Predicts the Future Economic Growth the Best?

Popis výsledku anglicky

The spread between long term and short term interest rates is a valuable forecasting tool. The steepness of the yield curve should be an excellent indicator of a possible future economic activity. A rise in the short rate tends to flatten the yield curve as well as to slow down real economic growth the near term. The relationship between the spread and future GDP activity was proved already before. One question remains – which spread is the best for the future prediction? Is it the spread between sovereign 10-year bonds and 3-month bonds or 15-year and 3- month or 10-year and 1-year sovereign bonds? This paper aimed to analyze which spread is the most suitable for predicting of future economic growth in countries of V4 (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia) between the years 2000 and 2015. We proved that in these selected countries the best spread is a spread of 5-year and 3-month government bonds. The second best spread is spread of 5-year and 1-year government bonds.

Druh

D - Stať ve sborníku

CEP obor

AE - Řízení, správa a administrativa

OECD FORD obor

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Projekt

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Návaznosti

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Rok uplatnění

2016

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název statě ve sborníku

Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on European Integration 2016

ISBN

9788024839110

ISSN

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e-ISSN

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Počet stran výsledku

7

Strana od-do

376-382

Název nakladatele

VŠB - Technical University of Ostrava

Místo vydání

Ostrava

Místo konání akce

Ostrava

Datum konání akce

1. 1. 2016

Typ akce podle státní příslušnosti

EUR - Evropská akce

Kód UT WoS článku

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