The prediction of economic activity growth by sovereign bond spreads in Scandinavia

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216224%3A14560%2F16%3A00091068" target="_blank" >RIV/00216224:14560/16:00091068 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

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DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

The prediction of economic activity growth by sovereign bond spreads in Scandinavia

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The steepness of the bond yield curve should be an excellent indicator of a possible future economic activity. A rise in the short rate tends to flatten the yield curve as well as to slow down real growth the near term. The relationship between the spread and future GDP activity was proved already before. One question remains – which spread is the best for the future prediction? Is it the spread between sovereign 10-year bonds and 3-month bonds or 30-year and 1- year or 10-year and 1-year sovereign bonds? This paper aims to analyse which spread is the most suitable for predicting of future economic growth in Scandinavia (Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden) between the years 2000 and 2016. The natural and probably the most popular measure of economic growth is GDP growth, taken quarterly.

Název v anglickém jazyce

The prediction of economic activity growth by sovereign bond spreads in Scandinavia

Popis výsledku anglicky

The steepness of the bond yield curve should be an excellent indicator of a possible future economic activity. A rise in the short rate tends to flatten the yield curve as well as to slow down real growth the near term. The relationship between the spread and future GDP activity was proved already before. One question remains – which spread is the best for the future prediction? Is it the spread between sovereign 10-year bonds and 3-month bonds or 30-year and 1- year or 10-year and 1-year sovereign bonds? This paper aims to analyse which spread is the most suitable for predicting of future economic growth in Scandinavia (Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden) between the years 2000 and 2016. The natural and probably the most popular measure of economic growth is GDP growth, taken quarterly.

Druh

D - Stať ve sborníku

CEP obor

AE - Řízení, správa a administrativa

OECD FORD obor

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Projekt

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Návaznosti

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Rok uplatnění

2016

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název statě ve sborníku

Conference Proceedings of 14th International Scientific Conference Economic Policy in the European Union Member Countries

ISBN

9788075102102

ISSN

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e-ISSN

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Počet stran výsledku

8

Strana od-do

250-257

Název nakladatele

Silesian University in Opava, School of Business Administration in Karvina

Místo vydání

Karviná

Místo konání akce

Petrovice u Karviné

Datum konání akce

1. 1. 2016

Typ akce podle státní příslušnosti

EUR - Evropská akce

Kód UT WoS článku

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