The yield curve as a predictor of economic activity - the case of Germany, Great Britain and France

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

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Výsledek na webu

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DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Jazyk výsledku

čeština

Název v původním jazyce

The yield curve as a predictor of economic activity - the case of Germany, Great Britain and France

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

In this paper we study the ability of the yield curve to predict GDP activity in Germany, France and Great Britain. The dataset contains the spread between 10-year and 3-month sovereign bonds and real GDP of the countries mentioned above between the years 2000 and 2018. The natural and probably the most popular measure of economic growth is GDP growth, taken quarterly. The steepness of the bond yield curve should be an excellent indicator of a possible future economic activity. A rise in the short rate tends to flatten the yield curve as well as to slow down real growth the near term. The relationship between the spread and future GDP activity was proved already before. The results showed that the prediction of the GDP growth or decrease was proven after year 2008 (the financial crisis) in all mentioned countries, the predictive power of the yield curve was lowered before the year 2008. Certainly the simple yield curve growth forecast should not serve as a replacement for the complex predictive models, it does, however, provide enough information to serve as a useful check on the more sophisticated forecasts. The results showed that the best predictive lag is a lag of five quarters. The theory says that it should be lag of four quarters. The results presented also confirm that 10-year and 3-month yield spread has significant predictive power for real GDP growth after financial crisis. These findings provide further evidence of the potential usefulness of the yield curve spreads as indicators of the future economic activity. These findings might be beneficial for investors and provide further evidence of the potential usefulness of the yield curve spreads as indicators of the future economic activity.

Název v anglickém jazyce

The yield curve as a predictor of economic activity - the case of Germany, Great Britain and France

Popis výsledku anglicky

In this paper we study the ability of the yield curve to predict GDP activity in Germany, France and Great Britain. The dataset contains the spread between 10-year and 3-month sovereign bonds and real GDP of the countries mentioned above between the years 2000 and 2018. The natural and probably the most popular measure of economic growth is GDP growth, taken quarterly. The steepness of the bond yield curve should be an excellent indicator of a possible future economic activity. A rise in the short rate tends to flatten the yield curve as well as to slow down real growth the near term. The relationship between the spread and future GDP activity was proved already before. The results showed that the prediction of the GDP growth or decrease was proven after year 2008 (the financial crisis) in all mentioned countries, the predictive power of the yield curve was lowered before the year 2008. Certainly the simple yield curve growth forecast should not serve as a replacement for the complex predictive models, it does, however, provide enough information to serve as a useful check on the more sophisticated forecasts. The results showed that the best predictive lag is a lag of five quarters. The theory says that it should be lag of four quarters. The results presented also confirm that 10-year and 3-month yield spread has significant predictive power for real GDP growth after financial crisis. These findings provide further evidence of the potential usefulness of the yield curve spreads as indicators of the future economic activity. These findings might be beneficial for investors and provide further evidence of the potential usefulness of the yield curve spreads as indicators of the future economic activity.

Druh

D - Stať ve sborníku

CEP obor

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OECD FORD obor

50206 - Finance

Projekt

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Návaznosti

N - Vyzkumna aktivita podporovana z neverejnych zdroju

Rok uplatnění

2019

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název statě ve sborníku

European Financial Systems 2019. Proceedings of the 16th International Scientific Conference

ISBN

9788021093386

ISSN

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e-ISSN

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Počet stran výsledku

6

Strana od-do

178-183

Název nakladatele

Masaryk University

Místo vydání

Brno

Místo konání akce

Brno

Datum konání akce

1. 1. 2019

Typ akce podle státní příslušnosti

EUR - Evropská akce

Kód UT WoS článku

000503222600021