The spillover effect of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: labor response in a neighboring economy

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216224%3A14560%2F25%3A00140316" target="_blank" >RIV/00216224:14560/25:00140316 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/1060586X.2025.2515808" target="_blank" >https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/1060586X.2025.2515808</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/1060586X.2025.2515808" target="_blank" >10.1080/1060586X.2025.2515808</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

The spillover effect of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: labor response in a neighboring economy

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

This paper examines the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on employment in Kazakhstan due to an influx of migrants. Using a Synthetic Control Method (SCM), our study reveals a varying effect on Kazakhstan’s employment following the invasion. We find a notable effect on employment in treated cities with regional variation. We also find the heterogeneous impact of forced migration across different demographic characteristics and report that young males and males with vocational education are the most vulnerable group, which aligns with expectations based on the nature of the shock and the aggregate composition of migrant flows. Our findings highlight that ongoing uncertainty and evolving geopolitics can have lasting consequences on Kazakhstan’s labor market. This research contributes to the understanding of labor market effects in emerging economies amidst (semi-)forced migration. The historical, cultural, and economic ties between Russia and Kazakhstan, coupled with their shared membership in the Eurasian Economic Union, present a distinctive context. Our research highlights the necessity of ongoing monitoring and adaptive strategies to mitigate the long-term impacts.

Název v anglickém jazyce

The spillover effect of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: labor response in a neighboring economy

Popis výsledku anglicky

This paper examines the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on employment in Kazakhstan due to an influx of migrants. Using a Synthetic Control Method (SCM), our study reveals a varying effect on Kazakhstan’s employment following the invasion. We find a notable effect on employment in treated cities with regional variation. We also find the heterogeneous impact of forced migration across different demographic characteristics and report that young males and males with vocational education are the most vulnerable group, which aligns with expectations based on the nature of the shock and the aggregate composition of migrant flows. Our findings highlight that ongoing uncertainty and evolving geopolitics can have lasting consequences on Kazakhstan’s labor market. This research contributes to the understanding of labor market effects in emerging economies amidst (semi-)forced migration. The historical, cultural, and economic ties between Russia and Kazakhstan, coupled with their shared membership in the Eurasian Economic Union, present a distinctive context. Our research highlights the necessity of ongoing monitoring and adaptive strategies to mitigate the long-term impacts.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

50202 - Applied Economics, Econometrics

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2025

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Post-Soviet Affairs

ISSN

1060-586X

e-ISSN

1938-2855

Svazek periodika

41

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

4

Stát vydavatele periodika

GB - Spojené království Velké Británie a Severního Irska

Počet stran výsledku

37

Strana od-do

311-347

Kód UT WoS článku

001509611900001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-105008438515