Household income expectations: The role of unexpected income changes and aggregate conditions

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216224%3A14560%2F25%3A00141347" target="_blank" >RIV/00216224:14560/25:00141347 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167268125001830" target="_blank" >https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167268125001830</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107064" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107064</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Household income expectations: The role of unexpected income changes and aggregate conditions

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

We analyse how unexpected income changes and aggregate conditions influence income expectations, their uncertainty, and expectation errors. We use a uniquely rich longitudinal Dutch survey collecting detailed information on the distribution of household income expectations. Our results show that unexpected income changes, much more than aggregate conditions, induce a revision in income expectations across the entire spectrum of the expected income distribution, consistent with extrapolative behaviour. We also document that unexpected income changes increase the uncertainty about future income. Our results provide some evidence of over-reaction, particularly to negative unexpected income changes and among high-income individuals. These effects differ based on an individual's position in the income distribution, which may be attributed to differences in income dynamics, role of insurance mechanisms, and varying levels of awareness about how unexpected income changes and aggregate conditions impact household finances.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Household income expectations: The role of unexpected income changes and aggregate conditions

Popis výsledku anglicky

We analyse how unexpected income changes and aggregate conditions influence income expectations, their uncertainty, and expectation errors. We use a uniquely rich longitudinal Dutch survey collecting detailed information on the distribution of household income expectations. Our results show that unexpected income changes, much more than aggregate conditions, induce a revision in income expectations across the entire spectrum of the expected income distribution, consistent with extrapolative behaviour. We also document that unexpected income changes increase the uncertainty about future income. Our results provide some evidence of over-reaction, particularly to negative unexpected income changes and among high-income individuals. These effects differ based on an individual's position in the income distribution, which may be attributed to differences in income dynamics, role of insurance mechanisms, and varying levels of awareness about how unexpected income changes and aggregate conditions impact household finances.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

50200 - Economics and Business

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2025

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization

ISSN

0167-2681

e-ISSN

1879-1751

Svazek periodika

236

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

August

Stát vydavatele periodika

NL - Nizozemsko

Počet stran výsledku

28

Strana od-do

1-28

Kód UT WoS článku

001507557100001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-105007149472