The Impact of Aggregation Level on the Forecasting Accuracy of Petroleum Consumption

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216275%3A25310%2F14%3A39898068" target="_blank" >RIV/00216275:25310/14:39898068 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

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DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

The Impact of Aggregation Level on the Forecasting Accuracy of Petroleum Consumption

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Hierarchical forecasting represents an approach to forecasting which takes account of the possibility of integration of foreseen items into related groups in accordance with chosen aggregation variables. Therefore, it is possible to use it in creation ofa system of forecasts on different aggregation levels in the way the created forecasts are in mutual time and material harmony. The thing is that in hierarchical forecasting the final forecasts are created from forecasts on a lower level of aggregation(bottom-up process), or from forecasts on a higher level of aggregation (top-down process). However, the knowledge of the influence of the aggregation level on the accuracy of the arising forecasts is a necessary condition of using the right approach tohierarchical forecasting. This paper describes the principles of hierarchical forecasting and the possibilities of their utilization within forecasting development of time series in consumption of basic petroleum products in the EU countr

Název v anglickém jazyce

The Impact of Aggregation Level on the Forecasting Accuracy of Petroleum Consumption

Popis výsledku anglicky

Hierarchical forecasting represents an approach to forecasting which takes account of the possibility of integration of foreseen items into related groups in accordance with chosen aggregation variables. Therefore, it is possible to use it in creation ofa system of forecasts on different aggregation levels in the way the created forecasts are in mutual time and material harmony. The thing is that in hierarchical forecasting the final forecasts are created from forecasts on a lower level of aggregation(bottom-up process), or from forecasts on a higher level of aggregation (top-down process). However, the knowledge of the influence of the aggregation level on the accuracy of the arising forecasts is a necessary condition of using the right approach tohierarchical forecasting. This paper describes the principles of hierarchical forecasting and the possibilities of their utilization within forecasting development of time series in consumption of basic petroleum products in the EU countr

Druh

D - Stať ve sborníku

CEP obor

AE - Řízení, správa a administrativa

OECD FORD obor

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Projekt

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Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2014

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název statě ve sborníku

SGEM Conference on Political Sciences, Law, Finance, Economics and Tourism, Conference proceedings, Volume III, "Economics and Tourism"

ISBN

978-619-7105-27-8

ISSN

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e-ISSN

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Počet stran výsledku

8

Strana od-do

629-636

Název nakladatele

SGEM

Místo vydání

Sofia

Místo konání akce

Albena

Datum konání akce

3. 9. 2014

Typ akce podle státní příslušnosti

WRD - Celosvětová akce

Kód UT WoS článku

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