Tax default prediction using feature transformation-based machine learning

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216275%3A25410%2F21%3A39917739" target="_blank" >RIV/00216275:25410/21:39917739 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9310180" target="_blank" >https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9310180</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2020.3048018" target="_blank" >10.1109/ACCESS.2020.3048018</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Tax default prediction using feature transformation-based machine learning

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

This study proposes to address the economic significance of unpaid taxes by using an automatic system for predicting a tax default. Too little attention has been paid to tax default prediction in the past. Moreover, existing approaches tend to apply conventional statistical methods rather than advanced data analytic approaches, including state-of-the-art machine learning methods. Therefore, existing studies cannot effectively detect tax default information in real-world financial data because they fail to take into account the appropriate data transformations and nonlinear relationships between early-warning financial indicators and tax default behavior. To overcome these problems, this study applies diverse feature transformation techniques and state-of-the-art machine learning approaches. The proposed prediction system is validated by using a dataset showing tax defaults and non-defaults at Finnish limited liability firms. Our findings provide evidence for a major role of feature transformation, such as logarithmic and square-root transformation, in improving the performance of tax default prediction. We also show that extreme gradient boosting and the systematically developed forest of multiple decision trees outperform other machine learning methods in terms of accuracy and other classification performance measures. We show that the equity ratio, liquidity ratio, and debt-to-sales ratio are the most important indicators of tax defaults for 1-year-ahead predictions. Therefore, this study highlights the essential role of well-designed tax default prediction systems, which require a combination of feature transformation and machine learning methods. The effective implementation of an automatic tax default prediction system has important implications for tax administration and can assist administrators in achieving feasible government expenditure allocations and revenue expansions.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Tax default prediction using feature transformation-based machine learning

Popis výsledku anglicky

This study proposes to address the economic significance of unpaid taxes by using an automatic system for predicting a tax default. Too little attention has been paid to tax default prediction in the past. Moreover, existing approaches tend to apply conventional statistical methods rather than advanced data analytic approaches, including state-of-the-art machine learning methods. Therefore, existing studies cannot effectively detect tax default information in real-world financial data because they fail to take into account the appropriate data transformations and nonlinear relationships between early-warning financial indicators and tax default behavior. To overcome these problems, this study applies diverse feature transformation techniques and state-of-the-art machine learning approaches. The proposed prediction system is validated by using a dataset showing tax defaults and non-defaults at Finnish limited liability firms. Our findings provide evidence for a major role of feature transformation, such as logarithmic and square-root transformation, in improving the performance of tax default prediction. We also show that extreme gradient boosting and the systematically developed forest of multiple decision trees outperform other machine learning methods in terms of accuracy and other classification performance measures. We show that the equity ratio, liquidity ratio, and debt-to-sales ratio are the most important indicators of tax defaults for 1-year-ahead predictions. Therefore, this study highlights the essential role of well-designed tax default prediction systems, which require a combination of feature transformation and machine learning methods. The effective implementation of an automatic tax default prediction system has important implications for tax administration and can assist administrators in achieving feasible government expenditure allocations and revenue expansions.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10201 - Computer sciences, information science, bioinformathics (hardware development to be 2.2, social aspect to be 5.8)

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/GA19-15498S" target="_blank" >GA19-15498S: Modelování emocí ve verbální a neverbální manažerské komunikaci pro predikci podnikových finančních rizik</a><br>

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2021

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

IEEE ACCESS

ISSN

2169-3536

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

9

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

29.12.2020

Stát vydavatele periodika

US - Spojené státy americké

Počet stran výsledku

18

Strana od-do

19864-19881

Kód UT WoS článku

000615028400001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85099111620