Forecasting the waste production hierarchical time series with correlation structure

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216305%3A26210%2F26%3A0189262" target="_blank" >RIV/00216305:26210/26:0189262 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11081-024-09898-0" target="_blank" >https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11081-024-09898-0</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11081-024-09898-0" target="_blank" >10.1007/s11081-024-09898-0</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Forecasting the waste production hierarchical time series with correlation structure

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Continuous increase in society's prosperity causes overwhelming growth of the produced municipal solid waste. Circular economy initiatives help to solve this problem by creating closed production cycles, where the produced waste is recycled, or its energy is recovered. An embedment of such principles requires implementation of new waste management strategies. However, these novel strategies must be based on the accurate forecasts of future waste flows. Municipal solid waste production data demonstrate behavior of hierarchical time series. Among all possible approaches to hierarchical times series forecasting, this article is focused on the reconciliation of the base waste generation forecasts. The novel method, that is based on the game-theoretically optimal reconciliation of hierarchical time series, is presented. The modified approach enables to incorporate interdependencies between time series using correlation matrix and to obtain the forecasts corresponding to the unique solution of the optimization problem. The potential of the proposed abstract approach is demonstrated on the waste production data of paper, plastics (both primarily sorted by households), and mixed municipal solid waste from the Czech Republic.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Forecasting the waste production hierarchical time series with correlation structure

Popis výsledku anglicky

Continuous increase in society's prosperity causes overwhelming growth of the produced municipal solid waste. Circular economy initiatives help to solve this problem by creating closed production cycles, where the produced waste is recycled, or its energy is recovered. An embedment of such principles requires implementation of new waste management strategies. However, these novel strategies must be based on the accurate forecasts of future waste flows. Municipal solid waste production data demonstrate behavior of hierarchical time series. Among all possible approaches to hierarchical times series forecasting, this article is focused on the reconciliation of the base waste generation forecasts. The novel method, that is based on the game-theoretically optimal reconciliation of hierarchical time series, is presented. The modified approach enables to incorporate interdependencies between time series using correlation matrix and to obtain the forecasts corresponding to the unique solution of the optimization problem. The potential of the proposed abstract approach is demonstrated on the waste production data of paper, plastics (both primarily sorted by households), and mixed municipal solid waste from the Czech Republic.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

21100 - Other engineering and technologies

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/SS02030008" target="_blank" >SS02030008: Centrum environmentálního výzkumu: Odpadové a oběhové hospodářství a environmentální bezpečnost</a><br>

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)<br>S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Rok uplatnění

2025

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Optimization and engineering

ISSN

1389-4420

e-ISSN

1573-2924

Svazek periodika

—

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

July 2024

Stát vydavatele periodika

NL - Nizozemsko

Počet stran výsledku

23

Strana od-do

781-803

Kód UT WoS článku

001260393000002

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85197398090