Demographic Development in Waste Production Forecasts for Energy Recovery Planning

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216305%3A26210%2F26%3A0197533" target="_blank" >RIV/00216305:26210/26:0197533 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/00216208:11310/25:10497944

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544225015373" target="_blank" >https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544225015373</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2025.135895" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.energy.2025.135895</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Demographic Development in Waste Production Forecasts for Energy Recovery Planning

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The transition to a circular economy is driving dynamic changes in waste management. While many waste fractions cannot be materially recovered, energy recovery remains a viable solution. Planning a long-term sustainable system requires accurate forecasts of waste production and treatment, closely tied to population trends, which pose challenges for smaller territorial units due to data variability. This study analyses the impact of demographic projections on waste production forecasts, focusing on fractions suitable for energy recovery with the territorial detail. The output is the identification of the difference in forecasts including demography development and without this factor. In the Czech Republic, population change of approximately 0.5% is expected by 2035. Despite this, significant differences emerge at the regional and micro-regional levels. Forecasts at the micro-regional level vary by more than 10%, with the extreme case where the difference exceeds 30%. Forecasts indicate that municipal waste suitable for energy recovery will exceed 2,600 kt, while the current facility capacity in the Czech Republic is only about 750 kt. Increasing waste-to-energy facility capacities will be necessary. The findings of this study enable targeted planning of new capacities in regions with high expected waste production and thus create a sustainable system of waste management.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Demographic Development in Waste Production Forecasts for Energy Recovery Planning

Popis výsledku anglicky

The transition to a circular economy is driving dynamic changes in waste management. While many waste fractions cannot be materially recovered, energy recovery remains a viable solution. Planning a long-term sustainable system requires accurate forecasts of waste production and treatment, closely tied to population trends, which pose challenges for smaller territorial units due to data variability. This study analyses the impact of demographic projections on waste production forecasts, focusing on fractions suitable for energy recovery with the territorial detail. The output is the identification of the difference in forecasts including demography development and without this factor. In the Czech Republic, population change of approximately 0.5% is expected by 2035. Despite this, significant differences emerge at the regional and micro-regional levels. Forecasts at the micro-regional level vary by more than 10%, with the extreme case where the difference exceeds 30%. Forecasts indicate that municipal waste suitable for energy recovery will exceed 2,600 kt, while the current facility capacity in the Czech Republic is only about 750 kt. Increasing waste-to-energy facility capacities will be necessary. The findings of this study enable targeted planning of new capacities in regions with high expected waste production and thus create a sustainable system of waste management.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10102 - Applied mathematics

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/GA25-15751S" target="_blank" >GA25-15751S: Nové metody operačního výzkumu pro managerské rozhodování v odpadovém hospodářství</a><br>

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2025

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Energy

ISSN

0360-5442

e-ISSN

1873-6785

Svazek periodika

323

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

1

Stát vydavatele periodika

GB - Spojené království Velké Británie a Severního Irska

Počet stran výsledku

15

Strana od-do

1-15

Kód UT WoS článku

001458602300001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-105001339212