Comparison of Deterministic Approach and Monte Carlo Methods for Stochastic PERT Chart

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216305%3A26510%2F14%3APU109911" target="_blank" >RIV/00216305:26510/14:PU109911 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

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DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Comparison of Deterministic Approach and Monte Carlo Methods for Stochastic PERT Chart

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The paper deals with a comparison of two different approaches (deterministic approach and Monte Carlo method) calculation of the probability of completion of the project. The base assumption of authors can be expressed: The difference between the resultsobtained by the Monte Carlo method and deterministic approach is not significant with increasing number of simulations (iterations). For this reason the hypothesis was formulated: There is no statistically significant difference between the calculated probabilities, i.e. both approaches are identical from application point of view. The problem was solved using the example project whose model (network chart) contained 18 nodes and 24 activities (18 real. 6 fictions). For each activity have been known three time estimates (pessimistic, most likely, optimistic). The planned date of completion of the project was selected at 200 time units and it was calculated the probability of completion of the project by deterministic approach and Monte

Název v anglickém jazyce

Comparison of Deterministic Approach and Monte Carlo Methods for Stochastic PERT Chart

Popis výsledku anglicky

The paper deals with a comparison of two different approaches (deterministic approach and Monte Carlo method) calculation of the probability of completion of the project. The base assumption of authors can be expressed: The difference between the resultsobtained by the Monte Carlo method and deterministic approach is not significant with increasing number of simulations (iterations). For this reason the hypothesis was formulated: There is no statistically significant difference between the calculated probabilities, i.e. both approaches are identical from application point of view. The problem was solved using the example project whose model (network chart) contained 18 nodes and 24 activities (18 real. 6 fictions). For each activity have been known three time estimates (pessimistic, most likely, optimistic). The planned date of completion of the project was selected at 200 time units and it was calculated the probability of completion of the project by deterministic approach and Monte

Druh

D - Stať ve sborníku

CEP obor

AE - Řízení, správa a administrativa

OECD FORD obor

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Projekt

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Návaznosti

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Rok uplatnění

2014

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název statě ve sborníku

Vision 2020: Sustainable Growth, Economic Development, and Global Competitiveness

ISBN

978-0-9860419-2-1

ISSN

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e-ISSN

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Počet stran výsledku

7

Strana od-do

1923-1929

Název nakladatele

International Business Information Management Association (IBIMA)

Místo vydání

Valencia, Spain

Místo konání akce

Valencia

Datum konání akce

13. 5. 2014

Typ akce podle státní příslušnosti

WRD - Celosvětová akce

Kód UT WoS článku

000339308100197