QUALITATIVE EQUATIONLESS MACROECONOMIC MODELS AS GENERATORS OF ALL POSSIBLE FORECASTS BASED ON THREE TREND VALUES – INCREASING, CONSTANT, DECREASING

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216305%3A26510%2F18%3APU126217" target="_blank" >RIV/00216305:26510/18:PU126217 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0954349X16300352" target="_blank" >http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0954349X16300352</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2018.01.001" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.strueco.2018.01.001</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

QUALITATIVE EQUATIONLESS MACROECONOMIC MODELS AS GENERATORS OF ALL POSSIBLE FORECASTS BASED ON THREE TREND VALUES – INCREASING, CONSTANT, DECREASING

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

This paper studies macroeconomic models based on a set of qualitative heuristics. A qualitative heuristic is described using just trends; i.e. increasing, decreasing, constant. The trends are the least information intensive quantifiers. E.g. an unemployment is increasing more and more rapidly represents the positive first time derivative of the unemployment (increasing) and positive second derivative (more and more rapidly). It means that not just trends but higher derivatives can be incorporated into a model if they are qualitatively known. No quantitative quantifiers, e.g. numbers, fuzzy sets, are used in this paper. The solution of a qualitative model is a set S of scenarios. A set T of transitions among the set of scenarios S is used to generate an oriented graph H. Any future and past time behaviour of the system under study is described by a path within the graph H. A ten-dimensional macroeconomic serves as a case study.

Název v anglickém jazyce

QUALITATIVE EQUATIONLESS MACROECONOMIC MODELS AS GENERATORS OF ALL POSSIBLE FORECASTS BASED ON THREE TREND VALUES – INCREASING, CONSTANT, DECREASING

Popis výsledku anglicky

This paper studies macroeconomic models based on a set of qualitative heuristics. A qualitative heuristic is described using just trends; i.e. increasing, decreasing, constant. The trends are the least information intensive quantifiers. E.g. an unemployment is increasing more and more rapidly represents the positive first time derivative of the unemployment (increasing) and positive second derivative (more and more rapidly). It means that not just trends but higher derivatives can be incorporated into a model if they are qualitatively known. No quantitative quantifiers, e.g. numbers, fuzzy sets, are used in this paper. The solution of a qualitative model is a set S of scenarios. A set T of transitions among the set of scenarios S is used to generate an oriented graph H. Any future and past time behaviour of the system under study is described by a path within the graph H. A ten-dimensional macroeconomic serves as a case study.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

50202 - Applied Economics, Econometrics

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/GA17-23448S" target="_blank" >GA17-23448S: Modelování a simulace udržitelného investování pro podporu rozhodování</a><br>

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2018

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

ISSN

0954-349X

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

2018

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

45

Stát vydavatele periodika

NL - Nizozemsko

Počet stran výsledku

7

Strana od-do

1-7

Kód UT WoS článku

000435054300003

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85040257853