Geopolitical deadlock and phosphate shortfall behind the price hike? Evidence from Moroccan commodity markets

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216305%3A26510%2F23%3APU149001" target="_blank" >RIV/00216305:26510/23:PU149001 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/75081431:_____/23:00002605

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://agricecon.agriculturejournals.cz/artkey/age-202308-0002_geopolitical-deadlock-and-phosphate-shortfall-behind-the-price-hike-evidence-from-moroccan-commodity-markets.php" target="_blank" >https://agricecon.agriculturejournals.cz/artkey/age-202308-0002_geopolitical-deadlock-and-phosphate-shortfall-behind-the-price-hike-evidence-from-moroccan-commodity-markets.php</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.17221/140/2023-AGRICECON" target="_blank" >10.17221/140/2023-AGRICECON</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Geopolitical deadlock and phosphate shortfall behind the price hike? Evidence from Moroccan commodity markets

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Phosphate fertilisers rank among limited conventional production aids, requiring eco-unfriendly mining methods. On the other hand, wheat is an indispensable agricultural commodity essential in the food industry. For this reason, it is appropriate to monitor the potential bivariate relationship between these commodities and to follow their future development closely. The article aims to identify a correlation (Kendall's tau) and causal (Granger causality test) between the price of Moroccan phosphate and wheat, applying vector autoregression (VAR). The results show a medium-to-strong correlation between phosphate and wheat, while causal analysis suggests a reciprocal relationship. The final prediction indicates the price stability of Moroccan phosphate and a fall in wheat prices, showing steady trends of the Moroccan phosphate and wheat market affected by the alarming situation in Ukraine. The article's drawbacks are a narrow market specialisation, which ignores other agricultural commodities. Our findings contribute to national officeholders and professional public, private and non-profit agrarian organisations. Investors may benefit from exploring turbulent exogenous variables like a critical geopolitical deadlock in Ukraine. The main contribution highlights the fact that the conventional fertiliser and wheat market situation appears to be stable and free from elements of uncertainty.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Geopolitical deadlock and phosphate shortfall behind the price hike? Evidence from Moroccan commodity markets

Popis výsledku anglicky

Phosphate fertilisers rank among limited conventional production aids, requiring eco-unfriendly mining methods. On the other hand, wheat is an indispensable agricultural commodity essential in the food industry. For this reason, it is appropriate to monitor the potential bivariate relationship between these commodities and to follow their future development closely. The article aims to identify a correlation (Kendall's tau) and causal (Granger causality test) between the price of Moroccan phosphate and wheat, applying vector autoregression (VAR). The results show a medium-to-strong correlation between phosphate and wheat, while causal analysis suggests a reciprocal relationship. The final prediction indicates the price stability of Moroccan phosphate and a fall in wheat prices, showing steady trends of the Moroccan phosphate and wheat market affected by the alarming situation in Ukraine. The article's drawbacks are a narrow market specialisation, which ignores other agricultural commodities. Our findings contribute to national officeholders and professional public, private and non-profit agrarian organisations. Investors may benefit from exploring turbulent exogenous variables like a critical geopolitical deadlock in Ukraine. The main contribution highlights the fact that the conventional fertiliser and wheat market situation appears to be stable and free from elements of uncertainty.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

50200 - Economics and Business

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Rok uplatnění

2023

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Agricultural Economics-Zemedelska Ekonomika

ISSN

0139-570X

e-ISSN

1805-9295

Svazek periodika

69

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

8

Stát vydavatele periodika

CZ - Česká republika

Počet stran výsledku

8

Strana od-do

301-308

Kód UT WoS článku

001041022400001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85169423391