Agricultural Commodities in the Context of the Russia-Ukraine War: Evidence from Corn, Wheat, Barley, and Sunflower Oil

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F75081431%3A_____%2F23%3A00002562" target="_blank" >RIV/75081431:_____/23:00002562 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2571-9394/5/1/19" target="_blank" >https://www.mdpi.com/2571-9394/5/1/19</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Agricultural Commodities in the Context of the Russia-Ukraine War: Evidence from Corn, Wheat, Barley, and Sunflower Oil

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 accelerated agricultural commodity prices and raised food insecurities worldwide. Ukraine and Russia are the leading global suppliers of wheat, corn, barley and sunflower oil. For this purpose, we investigated the relationship among these four agricultural commodities and, at the same time, predicted their future performance. The series covers the period from 1 January 1990 to 1 August 2022, based on monthly frequencies. The VAR impulse response function, variance decomposition, Granger Causality Test and vector error correction model were used to analyze relationships between variables. The results indicate that corn prices are an integral part of price changes in wheat, barley and sunflower oil. Wheat prices are also essential but with a weaker influence than that of corn. The additional purpose of this study was to forecast their price changes ten months ahead. The Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Vector Error Correction (VECM) fanchart estimates an average price decline in corn, wheat, barley and sunflower oil in the range of 10%. From a policy perspective, the findings provide reliable signals for countries exposed to food insecurities and inflationary risk. Recognizing the limitations that predictions maintain, the results provide modest signals for relevant agencies, international regulatory authorities, retailers and low-income countries. Moreover, stakeholders can become informed about their price behavior and the causal relationship they hold with each other.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Agricultural Commodities in the Context of the Russia-Ukraine War: Evidence from Corn, Wheat, Barley, and Sunflower Oil

Popis výsledku anglicky

The Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 accelerated agricultural commodity prices and raised food insecurities worldwide. Ukraine and Russia are the leading global suppliers of wheat, corn, barley and sunflower oil. For this purpose, we investigated the relationship among these four agricultural commodities and, at the same time, predicted their future performance. The series covers the period from 1 January 1990 to 1 August 2022, based on monthly frequencies. The VAR impulse response function, variance decomposition, Granger Causality Test and vector error correction model were used to analyze relationships between variables. The results indicate that corn prices are an integral part of price changes in wheat, barley and sunflower oil. Wheat prices are also essential but with a weaker influence than that of corn. The additional purpose of this study was to forecast their price changes ten months ahead. The Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Vector Error Correction (VECM) fanchart estimates an average price decline in corn, wheat, barley and sunflower oil in the range of 10%. From a policy perspective, the findings provide reliable signals for countries exposed to food insecurities and inflationary risk. Recognizing the limitations that predictions maintain, the results provide modest signals for relevant agencies, international regulatory authorities, retailers and low-income countries. Moreover, stakeholders can become informed about their price behavior and the causal relationship they hold with each other.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

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OECD FORD obor

50200 - Economics and Business

Projekt

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Návaznosti

V - Vyzkumna aktivita podporovana z jinych verejnych zdroju

Rok uplatnění

2023

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Forecasting

ISSN

2571-9394

e-ISSN

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Svazek periodika

5

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

1

Stát vydavatele periodika

CH - Švýcarská konfederace

Počet stran výsledku

23

Strana od-do

351-373

Kód UT WoS článku

000956692200001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85150988723