Geopolitical risks for Egypt wheat supply and trade

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F04130081%3A_____%2F23%3AN0000012" target="_blank" >RIV/04130081:_____/23:N0000012 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/60460709:41110/23:94789 RIV/60076658:12410/23:43906546

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fsufs.2023.1137526/full" target="_blank" >https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fsufs.2023.1137526/full</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2023.1137526" target="_blank" >10.3389/fsufs.2023.1137526</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Geopolitical risks for Egypt wheat supply and trade

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Introduction: Since 2005, Russia has established a stable position in Egypt's wheat imports, and after 2016, it became the largest global wheat exporter. The shift in Russian grain production has visibly affected wheat export destinations in favor of developing countries. This paper identifies the main determinants of wheat trade in Egypt concerning the primary risks associated with the war in Ukraine. Methods: The paper utilizes time series analysis, index analysis, and an econometric model to define the statistical relationship between the quantity of wheat imported into Egypt and population development, wheat price, and wheat production. Results: Despite increasing wheat production growth rates (1.9% p.a. over 2000–2020) and a growing population (2.01% p.a.), Egypt is unable to reduce its import dependence below 50% of total consumption. Undernourishment in Egypt remains at 5.2%–5.4% of the population. The econometric model shows that variables describing the evolution of production, population, and prices are statistically significant in relation to wheat imports. Egypt's wheat imports continue to increase even with rising prices, which is typical for developing countries. The war in Ukraine and associated commodity price increases have far-reaching implications for Africa's food security and supply systems. Discussion: Egypt's vulnerability to external influences, such as climate change, migration, rising commodity prices, and population growth, exacerbates the situation. Most African countries, including Egypt, struggle with the economic and social impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. They also face rising food and energy prices, conflicts between the world's largest food producers, and increasing poverty rates. The research findings confirm that Egypt is among the highly vulnerable countries due to the war in Ukraine and the disruption of agricultural supply chains.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Geopolitical risks for Egypt wheat supply and trade

Popis výsledku anglicky

Introduction: Since 2005, Russia has established a stable position in Egypt's wheat imports, and after 2016, it became the largest global wheat exporter. The shift in Russian grain production has visibly affected wheat export destinations in favor of developing countries. This paper identifies the main determinants of wheat trade in Egypt concerning the primary risks associated with the war in Ukraine. Methods: The paper utilizes time series analysis, index analysis, and an econometric model to define the statistical relationship between the quantity of wheat imported into Egypt and population development, wheat price, and wheat production. Results: Despite increasing wheat production growth rates (1.9% p.a. over 2000–2020) and a growing population (2.01% p.a.), Egypt is unable to reduce its import dependence below 50% of total consumption. Undernourishment in Egypt remains at 5.2%–5.4% of the population. The econometric model shows that variables describing the evolution of production, population, and prices are statistically significant in relation to wheat imports. Egypt's wheat imports continue to increase even with rising prices, which is typical for developing countries. The war in Ukraine and associated commodity price increases have far-reaching implications for Africa's food security and supply systems. Discussion: Egypt's vulnerability to external influences, such as climate change, migration, rising commodity prices, and population growth, exacerbates the situation. Most African countries, including Egypt, struggle with the economic and social impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. They also face rising food and energy prices, conflicts between the world's largest food producers, and increasing poverty rates. The research findings confirm that Egypt is among the highly vulnerable countries due to the war in Ukraine and the disruption of agricultural supply chains.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

50204 - Business and management

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

N - Vyzkumna aktivita podporovana z neverejnych zdroju

Rok uplatnění

2023

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

FRONTIERS IN SUSTAINABLE FOOD SYSTEMS

ISSN

2571-581X

e-ISSN

2571-581X

Svazek periodika

7

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

1137526

Stát vydavatele periodika

CH - Švýcarská konfederace

Počet stran výsledku

16

Strana od-do

1-16

Kód UT WoS článku

000970774100001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85153497900