Estimates the Relative Risk of Accidents for Drunk Driving and Age

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F25940082%3A_____%2F23%3AN0000027" target="_blank" >RIV/25940082:_____/23:N0000027 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

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DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Estimates the Relative Risk of Accidents for Drunk Driving and Age

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

This paper focuses on the role of driver heterogeneity in relation to the risk of causing a road traffic accident (RTA). Our main objective is to estimate the related relative risks (RR) across selected driver characteristics (age, alcohol consumption). We overcome the challenge of unknown driving exposure (i.e. relating the risk to mileage or time spent on the road) by adopting a quasi-induced exposure approach which suggests that not-at-fault drivers may be a valid representation of the driving population. Based on a unique dataset of all 1,029,010 RTAs that were recorded by the Police Czech Republic between the years 2011-2021, we perform the first RR estimates for Czech Republic and compare them to the relevant empirical literature. Results show that risk that a drunk driver causes a fatal accident is 11,68 times higher in comparison to his sober counterpart (for those with Alcohol >1‰ this equals to 35,20). Young and elderly drivers also show higher risk ranging from 2,48 to 3,95 (in comparison to drivers in age between 25 and 65 years). Next to new estimates, we offer a systematic discussion and testing of the underlying assumptions. We also present information on the composition of not-at-fault drivers, which we combine with estimated RRs and offer relevant policy interpretation. [Presentation on The 25th International Conference ECONOMIC COMPETITIVENESS AND SUSTAINABILITY, March 23-24, 2023, Brno.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Estimates the Relative Risk of Accidents for Drunk Driving and Age

Popis výsledku anglicky

This paper focuses on the role of driver heterogeneity in relation to the risk of causing a road traffic accident (RTA). Our main objective is to estimate the related relative risks (RR) across selected driver characteristics (age, alcohol consumption). We overcome the challenge of unknown driving exposure (i.e. relating the risk to mileage or time spent on the road) by adopting a quasi-induced exposure approach which suggests that not-at-fault drivers may be a valid representation of the driving population. Based on a unique dataset of all 1,029,010 RTAs that were recorded by the Police Czech Republic between the years 2011-2021, we perform the first RR estimates for Czech Republic and compare them to the relevant empirical literature. Results show that risk that a drunk driver causes a fatal accident is 11,68 times higher in comparison to his sober counterpart (for those with Alcohol >1‰ this equals to 35,20). Young and elderly drivers also show higher risk ranging from 2,48 to 3,95 (in comparison to drivers in age between 25 and 65 years). Next to new estimates, we offer a systematic discussion and testing of the underlying assumptions. We also present information on the composition of not-at-fault drivers, which we combine with estimated RRs and offer relevant policy interpretation. [Presentation on The 25th International Conference ECONOMIC COMPETITIVENESS AND SUSTAINABILITY, March 23-24, 2023, Brno.

Druh

O - Ostatní výsledky

CEP obor

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OECD FORD obor

50703 - Transport planning and social aspects of transport (transport engineering to be 2.1)

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/CK03000255" target="_blank" >CK03000255: Nová generace statistik dopravních nehod pro Policii ČR</a><br>

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2023

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů